Prediction for match Jagiellonia — GKS Katowice

Match Analysis: Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice

In the Ekstraklasa on November 23, Jagiellonia will face GKS Katowice. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: a win for Jagiellonia is priced at 1.77, a draw at 3.74, and a win for GKS Katowice at 4.14. In terms of win probability, Jagiellonia has 52.61%, a draw is at 24.90%, and GKS Katowice has 22.49%. Jagiellonia is considered the favorite, but the percentage gap suggests it's not a one-sided match. Interestingly, the 1X2 outcome difference between Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice is 30.12 percentage points, and the draw is slightly below a quarter probability.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Jagiellonia had an average possession of 57.6%, recorded 2.8 yellow cards, 13.2 fouls, and 0.6 offsides per game. GKS Katowice, in the same period, had 44.2% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 14.6 fouls, and 2.8 offsides. Jagiellonia's results in the last three games: 09.11 Pogon Szczecin - Jagiellonia 1-2, 06.11 Shkendija - Jagiellonia 1-1, 02.11 Jagiellonia - Raków 1-2. For GKS Katowice: 08.11 GKS Katowice - Piast Gliwice 1-3, 31.10 Nieciecza - GKS Katowice 0-3, 25.10 GKS Katowice - Korona Kielce 1-0. In their head-to-head on 02.03.2025, Jagiellonia won against GKS Katowice 1-0 with a total under 2.5 goals. In the previous match on 25.08.2024, GKS Katowice was stronger with a 3-1 win.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Jagiellonia's average total goals per match is 2.6, while GKS Katowice's is 3.2. Over this period, both teams played over 2.5 goals three times out of five. By halves: Jagiellonia had over 1.5 goals in the first half twice and three times in the second half; GKS Katowice similarly had over 1.5 goals twice in the first half and three times in the second. Jagiellonia most frequently scores in the 76-90 minute interval (50%), while GKS Katowice splits their peaks evenly between the 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (50% each). Jagiellonia concedes most in the 0-15, 46-60, and 76-90 minute spans (29% each), while GKS Katowice concedes most in the 16-30 and 76-90 minute intervals (25% each). Both teams show a tendency for high-scoring finishes. Considering both teams exceeded the 2.5 total in three matches, with average scoring above 2.5 and goal activation in the final minutes, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.53 seems optimal.

Corners in the Match

Regarding corners, Jagiellonia averaged 2.8, and GKS Katowice 3.2 in their last five games. The frequency of over 9.5 corners occurred only once in five matches for both teams. The line for total corners over 9.5 is at 1.69, and under 9.5 is at 2.02. Jagiellonia is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 1.57. Based on low averages and rare occurrences of over 9.5 corners, betting on under 9.5 corners seems the most reasonable choice.