Prediction for match Lazio — Fiorentina

Match Analysis: Lazio vs Fiorentina

On January 7th, Lazio and Fiorentina face off in Serie A. Bookmakers have set the odds for a Lazio win at 2.51, a draw at 3.17, and a Fiorentina victory at 3.32. The probability percentages for the outcomes are as follows: Lazio 39.25%, Draw 31.08%, Fiorentina 29.67%. The odds suggest a fairly even contest with a slight edge for Lazio. In recent head-to-head encounters, the teams have exchanged victories, with Fiorentina winning 2-1 at Lazio's ground in January 2025.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Lazio has averaged 49.2% possession, received 3.4 yellow cards, committed 11.6 fouls, and been caught offside once per game. Fiorentina, on the other hand, boasts a higher possession rate of 61.2%, with 1.8 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Lazio's last three matches: January 4 - Lazio 0-2 Napoli, December 27 - Udinese 1-1 Lazio, December 20 - Lazio 0-0 Cremonese. Fiorentina's recent games: January 4 - Fiorentina 1-0 Cremonese, December 27 - Parma 0-1 Fiorentina, December 21 - Fiorentina 5-1 Udinese. In their last encounter on January 26, 2025, Lazio lost 1-2 to Fiorentina.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Lazio has not seen a game go over 2.5 goals, with all five resulting in under. For Fiorentina, 2 out of 5 matches ended with three or more goals, while three were under. By halves, Lazio saw the over 1.5 goals occur twice in the first half and once in the second, while Fiorentina had it once in the first and twice in the second. Lazio's average goals scored is 0.6, with 0.8 conceded, resulting in a total average of 1.4 goals per match. Fiorentina's averages are higher: 1.4 goals scored, 1 conceded, and a total of 2.4 goals on average. Lazio most frequently scores between the 31st-45th and 76th-90th minutes (50% each), and concedes within the same periods (40% each). Fiorentina often scores between the 46th-60th minutes (33%), with goals conceded distributed across the 31st-45th, 61st-75th, and 76th-90th minutes (33% each). Given Lazio's low scoring and Fiorentina's moderate scoring, along with Lazio's frequent unders, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.71 seems reasonable.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Lazio averages 4.4 corners per match, while Fiorentina averages 6. In the last 5 games, Lazio has exceeded 9.5 corners twice, and Fiorentina four times. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 2.12, and under 9.5 is 1.67. Lazio is favored for total corners with odds of 1.70. Considering both teams average 10.4 corners per match, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, especially given Fiorentina's frequent over. Individual corner totals for both teams can also be considered, as Fiorentina consistently exceeds 5-6 corners per game.