Prediction for match Lecce — Parma, 11.01.2026

Match Analysis: Lecce vs Parma

In Serie A on January 11, Lecce will face Parma. The 1X2 odds are quite close: Lecce's win is priced at 2.84, Parma's at 2.99, and a draw at 3.05. In terms of probabilities, Lecce has 34.71%, Parma 32.97%, and a draw 32.32%. There's no clear favorite in this matchup, reflected in both percentages and odds. Expectations for the match are moderate, and the recent performances of both teams confirm the bookmakers' cautious outlook. The lines for totals and individual performances also do not show a clear bias towards high scoring.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Lecce lost to Roma 0-2 on January 6, drew 1-1 with Juventus on January 3, and lost to Como 0-3 on December 27. Parma, in their last three games, lost to Inter 0-2 on January 7, drew 1-1 with Sassuolo on January 3, and defeated Fiorentina 1-0 on December 27. Over a five-match series, Lecce averages 44% possession, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 11 fouls, and is caught offside once per game. Parma averages 42.6% possession, gets 1.4 yellow cards, commits 8.4 fouls, and is caught offside 0.8 times per match. In their last head-to-head on October 4, 2025, Parma lost to Lecce 0-1. These stats show that both teams struggle with ball control and frequently commit fouls, though Lecce receives more warnings and fouls more often. Overall, both teams play matches with a moderate number of fouls and cards, which could affect the game's pace.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a series of five matches, Lecce averages 2 goals per game, scoring only 0.4 and conceding 1.6. Parma's average goals per game is even lower at 1.4, with 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded. Lecce has only 1 out of 5 matches with over 2.5 goals, and Parma has none. For over 1.5 goals, Lecce has 3 out of 5 matches, and Parma 2 out of 5. In the first half, Lecce has not played any matches over 1.5 goals, while Parma has only 1 out of 5. In the second half, Lecce has gone over 1.5 goals 3 times out of 5, while Parma has none. Lecce most often scores between the 46th-60th and 61st-75th minutes (40% each), and concedes most often between the 61st-75th minute (50%). Parma scores in the 0-15 and 46-60 minute intervals (50% each) and concedes in the 31-45 and 76-90 minute intervals (40% each). All this suggests low scoring from both teams, no clear over-profile, and frequent under outcomes. The most logical bet seems to be on under 2.5 goals at 1.47, given the low scoring and conceding rates, as well as the frequency of unders in recent matches.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Lecce averages 4.8 corners per match, while Parma averages 3.4. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners, Lecce has 4 out of 5, and Parma 2 out of 5. Among the corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (8.2) is 8.5: over 8.5 corners is priced at 1.53, under 8.5 at 2.35. Lecce is the favorite for corner outcomes with odds of 1.75. In recent matches, Lecce consistently achieves high corner counts, confirmed by four out of five matches going over 9.5 corners. Parma delivers fewer, but overall both teams are capable of generating a sufficient number of corners. It makes sense to consider a bet on over 8.5 corners, given Lecce's statistics and the overall trend in this metric.