Prediction for match Lech Poznan — Mainz 05, 11.12.2025

Match Analysis: Lech Poznan vs Mainz 05

The UEFA Conference League continues to deliver thrilling encounters, and the clash between Lech Poznan and Mainz 05 on December 11, 2025, is attracting attention not only from fans but also from bettors. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Mainz 05 is priced at 2.39, Lech Poznan at 3.02, and a draw at 3.54. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Lech Poznan at 32.09%, a draw at 27.37%, and Mainz 05 at 40.54%. Thus, bookmakers highlight Mainz 05 as the most likely winner, but the difference in chances is not overwhelming, adding intrigue to the upcoming match.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at the last five matches, Lech Poznan recorded a 2-2 draw with Cracovia on December 7, a 0-0 draw against Wisla Plock on November 30, a 2-0 victory over Lausanne on November 27, a convincing 4-1 win against Radomiak Radom on November 23, and a 1-3 defeat to Arka Gdynia on November 9. During the same period, Mainz 05 had these results: a 0-1 loss to Borussia M on December 5, a heavy 0-4 defeat to Freiburg on November 30, a narrow 0-1 loss to Universitatea Craiova on November 27, a 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim on November 21, and a 0-1 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt on November 9. In terms of additional statistics, Lech Poznan has an average ball possession of 54% over 5 matches, 2 yellow cards, 11 fouls, and 1 offside. Mainz 05 has a possession rate of 45.2%, 2.8 yellow cards, 13.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. These figures show that Lech Poznan often controls the ball more, while Mainz 05 commits more fouls and receives more cautions.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of scoring, Lech Poznan appears significantly more active: the team's average goal count over five matches is 3, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.2. Mainz 05 has an average total of 1.8, scoring only 0.2 goals per game and conceding 1.6. In terms of over/under totals, Lech Poznan had over 2.5 goals in three out of five games, and under in two, while Mainz 05 had over 2.5 goals only once and under four times. By halves, Lech Poznan had over 1.5 goals in the first half only once, but in the second half, four times out of five it was over 1.5. Mainz 05 had over 1.5 goals in both halves only once. In terms of goal intervals, Lech Poznan most frequently scores between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (36% each), while Mainz 05 scores most often in the 76th-90th minute interval (43%). Lech Poznan concedes most often in four different intervals: 0-15, 16-30, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (25% each). Mainz 05 concedes most often at the start of the second half (46-60 minutes) and in the first 15 minutes (50% each). This data suggests that Lech Poznan consistently scores and concedes, while Mainz 05 struggles significantly in attack. Based on this information, a bet on under 2.5 goals seems justified, considering Mainz 05's weak scoring and their tendency for low-scoring matches. The odds for under 2.5 goals are 2.04.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

In terms of average corners, Lech Poznan delivers 6.2 over five matches, while Mainz 05 delivers 5.2. In a series of five games, Lech Poznan had over 9.5 corners four times, and Mainz 05 twice. The closest total with available odds is 9.5: the odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.78, and under 9.5 are 1.91. In the outcome for corners, Mainz 05 is favored with odds of 1.80. Considering the average activity of both teams in terms of deliveries, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical. Additionally, individual statistics can be noted: Lech Poznan consistently achieves more than 6 corners per match, while Mainz 05 remains slightly below. Based on the statistics, a relatively high total corner count can be expected in this match.