Prediction for match Leicester — Derby County

Leicester vs Derby County Match Analysis

In the English Championship on December 29, Leicester will face Derby County. Leicester is favored with odds of 2.09 for a win, a draw is priced at 3.30, and a Derby County victory is available at 3.50. The probability distribution for the outcomes is as follows: Leicester - 44.83%, draw - 28.39%, Derby County - 26.77%. Leicester stands out as the more likely winner, but the odds suggest a competitive match. There is a variety of goal total options, but the main interest lies in the over 2.5 goals line at odds of 2.11. Both teams to score is priced at 1.85 for both "yes" and "no". The over 2.25 goals option is at 1.83, while under 2.5 goals can be taken for 1.70.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Leicester has averaged 44.4% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 12.4 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Derby County has slightly higher possession at 47%, with 2 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1.8 offsides on average. Leicester's last three matches: 26.12.2025 Leicester - Watford 1-2, 20.12.2025 QPR - Leicester 4-1, 13.12.2025 Leicester - Ipswich Town 3-1. Derby County's last three games: 26.12.2025 Birmingham - Derby County 1-1, 20.12.2025 Derby County - Portsmouth 1-1, 15.12.2025 Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County 0-3. In their head-to-head on December 6, Derby County lost to Leicester 1-3.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Leicester's last five matches, the over 2.5 goals line hit 5 out of 5 times, while for Derby County, it was 2 out of 5. Leicester averages 2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, with a total average of 4 goals in their matches. Derby County averages 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded, and a total of 2.6. In the first half, Leicester had over 1.5 goals 5 out of 5 times, while Derby County had it 2 out of 5. In the second half, Leicester had over 1.5 goals 3 out of 5 times, and Derby County 2 out of 5. Leicester most frequently scores between the 0-15 and 31-45 minute marks (27% each), while they concede most often between 31-45 minutes (30%). Derby County is most productive between 61-75 minutes (50%) and concedes most in the first 15 minutes (33%). Considering Leicester's high scoring rate and both teams' defenses, betting on over 2.5 goals at 2.11 seems justified. The over 2.25 goals option is also possible, but with lower odds at 1.83. For a safer bet, consider over 2.0 goals at 1.56, but the main interest is in the over 2.5 goals.

Corner Betting

Leicester averages 3.8 corners per game, while Derby County averages 5.6. In the last five matches, both teams have seen over 9.5 corners 3 times out of 5. Based on the average total corners (9.4), the closest line is over 9.5 corners. Odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.72, while under 9.5 is 2.00. Leicester is the favorite in corner betting with odds of 1.55. Expect at least 9-10 corners in the match, with Derby County's average notably higher. There are also options for individual team corner totals, but the main interest is in the overall total of 9.5 corners.