Prediction for match Leon — Necaxa

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In Liga MX on March 1st, Leon will face Necaxa. The odds for Leon to win are 2.20, for Necaxa's success - 3.12, and a draw is at 3.35. Looking at the probability distribution, Leon is estimated at 42.34%, a draw at 27.81%, and Necaxa at 29.85%. Based on these figures, Leon has the advantage, but Necaxa also has significant chances. Options for total goals are also presented: Over 2.5 is at 1.78, Under 2.5 - 1.98. Both teams to score: yes is at 1.61, no - 2.18. Among individual totals, Leon's ITB 1.5 is at 2.04, while Necaxa's ITB 1.5 is at 2.53. The double chance X2 for Necaxa is offered at 1.62. According to these odds, the match is expected to be high-scoring, but with a moderate edge for Leon.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Leon averages 51% possession, commits 3.2 warnings, 13.4 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Necaxa holds the ball 49.2% of the time, records 2.2 yellow cards, 11 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In Leon's last three matches: 22.02.2026 Leon - Santos Laguna 2-1, 15.02.2026 Monterrey - Leon 1-0, 07.02.2026 Queretaro - Leon 2-0. For Necaxa: 22.02.2026 Necaxa - Toluca 0-3, 15.02.2026 Juarez - Necaxa 1-2, 07.02.2026 Necaxa - Atletico San Luis 4-1. In their last head-to-head on 03.01.2026, Leon and Necaxa played 0-0. These stats show that both teams can score and concede, but Leon has been less effective in recent matches.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Leon vs. Necaxa Match

Based on the last five matches, Leon's average total goals is 2.2, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 per game. Necaxa's average total is 2.8, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6. For over 2.5 goals: Leon has 2 out of 5 on the over, Necaxa - 3 out of 5 on the over. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred for both teams 2 times out of 5, in the second half Leon only once, Necaxa - twice. For goal intervals: Leon most frequently scores between the 16th and 30th minute (38%), while Necaxa scores between the 31st and 45th (43%). Leon most often concedes between the 46th and 60th minute (50%), and Necaxa in the closing 76th to 90th minutes (71%). These data suggest that both teams can create chances, but Leon does not convert them as consistently as Necaxa. However, both teams have a tendency to go over 2.5 goals, especially Necaxa, where the average total goals is noticeably higher. Combined with the 1.78 odds for Over 2.5 and the frequent occurrence of this total for both teams, a bet on over 2.5 goals seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Leon averages 4.6 corners per match, Necaxa - 3.6. In the last five encounters, Leon played over 9.5 corners twice, Necaxa - three times. If you add the average figures, the expected sum of corners is around 8-9 per game. Among the presented totals, the line closest to this sum is 8.5: for over 8.5 corners, the odds are 1.38, for under 8.5 - 2.78. In terms of corner outcomes, Leon is favored with odds of 2.05. Overall, neither team shows extremely high or low corner values, so a bet on over 8.5 corners seems logical, considering the average figures and the frequency of overs in recent matches.