Prediction for match Lille — Aston Villa

Odds and Probability Percentages for Match Outcome

In the Europa League on March 12, Lille faces Aston Villa. The odds for the match are as follows: Lille at 3.11, a draw at 3.40, and Aston Villa as the favorite at 2.50. The probability percentages are: Lille - 31.66%, draw - 28.96%, Aston Villa - 39.38%. Although Aston Villa has the highest probability, the difference with Lille is not overwhelming, and a draw is also considered quite likely.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Lille had an average possession of 56.4%, received 2 yellow cards, committed 12.8 fouls, and 2 offsides per game. Aston Villa, over the same period, had 52.8% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per match. Lille's last three matches were: 08.03.2026 - Lille vs Lorient - 1-1, 01.03.2026 - Lille vs Nantes - 1-0, 26.02.2026 - Red Star Belgrade vs Lille - 0-2. Aston Villa's last three matches were: 04.03.2026 - Aston Villa vs Chelsea - 1-4, 27.02.2026 - Wolverhampton vs Aston Villa - 2-0, 21.02.2026 - Aston Villa vs Leeds - 1-1. The last head-to-head match between these teams took place on 18.04.2024, with Lille winning 2-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Lille has shown low scoring with an average of 1.4 goals per game, scoring 1 and conceding only 0.4 per match. Aston Villa's average total is significantly higher at 2.8, but they score only 0.8 and concede 2. Regarding over 2.5 goals: Lille had none (0 out of 5), while Aston Villa had 2 out of 5. For the first half, Lille never went over 1.5, while Aston Villa did 1 out of 5. In the second half, Lille had 1 out of 5 over 1.5, Aston Villa 3 out of 5. Lille most frequently scores between 61-75 and 76-90 minutes (50% each), while Aston Villa scores mostly in the final minutes (76-90, 50%). Lille concedes most often between 31-45 minutes (50%), and Aston Villa in the same interval (38%). Overall, neither team shows a stable over-profile, and Lille particularly does not play high-scoring games. Aston Villa shows some activity in the second half, but both teams rarely hit the over totals. In this context, a bet on under 2.5 goals seems the most logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Average corners over 5 matches: Lille - 6, Aston Villa - 5.6. For over 9.5 corners, Lille had 2 out of 5, Aston Villa 3 out of 5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.94, under 9.5 - 1.81. Aston Villa is favored for corners with odds of 2.05. Overall, both teams can earn a fair number of corners, often staying in the 9-12 range, making a bet on over 9.5 corners interesting to consider.