Prediction for match Lille — Freiburg

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Europa League on January 29, Lille will face Freiburg. Lille is favored with odds of 1.97, a draw is at 3.68, and Freiburg's victory is at 4.24. The probability distribution is as follows: Lille - 50%, draw - 26.77%, Freiburg - 23.23%. Lille is highlighted as the favorite, but the gap isn't too large, which is reflected in the odds for a draw and Freiburg's win. In the goal total line, under 2.5 goals is at 1.98, and over 2.5 is at 1.96, indicating a close expectation for scoring. Both teams to score: yes is at 1.73, no is at 2.01.

Team Results and Statistics

Lille lost their last three matches to Strasbourg 1-4, Celta 1-2, and PSG 0-3. Freiburg, in their last three games, defeated Cologne 2-1, Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-0, and drew with Augsburg 2-2. Both teams show the same level of ball possession - 51.6%. Lille averages 1.6 yellow cards, 8 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per five matches. Freiburg averages 2 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. In a five-match series, Lille earns 5.4 corners, Freiburg - 3.6. It's worth noting that in the last five matches, Lille concedes an average of 2.6 goals and scores only 0.6, whereas Freiburg scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2. These figures reflect the difference in the current form of the teams.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Lille's last five matches, the total over 2.5 occurred 4 times, under 1 time. For Freiburg, the total over 2.5 occurred 3 times and under 2 times. Lille's average goal total is 3.2, Freiburg's is 2.6. However, Lille's scoring is extremely low: only 0.6 goals per game, while conceding 2.6. Freiburg, on the other hand, scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2. By halves, for Lille, the total over 1.5 in the second half occurred 4 out of 5 times, in the first half - 2 out of 5. For Freiburg, the total over 1.5 in the second half occurred 3 times, in the first half - 1 out of 5. In terms of intervals, Lille most often scores between 0-15, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (29% each), and concedes most often between 46-60 minutes (33%). Freiburg scores half of their goals between 46-60 minutes, and concedes the same amount in this interval. Despite relatively high average totals, Lille's low scoring and Freiburg's decent defense make a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.98 logical. Don't expect a high-scoring game, considering Lille's attacking issues and Freiburg's controlled play.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Lille averages 5.4 corners per match, Freiburg - 3.6. For a total over 9.5 corners in the last five matches, both teams recorded 2 overs and 3 unders. If considering the total corners, the line closest to the average sum is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 2.12, under is at 1.61. For the outcome on corners, Lille is the favorite with odds of 1.48. Overall, considering both teams' average figures and frequency of outcomes, a bet on under 9.5 corners seems justified, but an over is possible with active flank play. Also, note the individual figures: Lille consistently delivers more than 5 corners per match, while Freiburg often limits themselves to 3-4.