Prediction for match Lithuania — Poland

Who is the favorite in the Lithuania vs Poland match?

In the World Cup qualification match between Lithuania and Poland, bookmakers clearly favor Poland: the odds for a Polish victory are 1.42, while a draw is at 4.50. The probability of an away win is 66.45%, a draw is estimated at 20.97%, and Lithuania's victory is at 7.50 with a 12.58% chance. Expectations are on Poland's side, which is reflected in the outcome percentage distribution. The match will take place on October 12, 2025.

Team results and statistics

In their last five matches, Lithuania averages 0.8 goals scored per game, concedes 2.2 goals, and earns 1.8 corners, with 41.8% possession. In the same period, Poland averages 1.6 goals scored, concedes 0.8, earns 3.2 corners, and has 24.6% possession, while committing significantly fewer fouls (6.4 compared to 14.6). Recently, Lithuania lost to Finland 1-2 (09.10.2025) and played 2-3 with the Netherlands (07.09.2025), while Poland defeated New Zealand 1-0 (09.10.2025) and Finland 3-1 (07.09.2025). In head-to-head matches in 2025 and 2018, Poland won 1-0 and 4-0, respectively.

How many goals to expect?

In Lithuania's last five matches, the over 2.5 goals bet hit three times, while for Poland, it was 2 out of 5. Average goals per game: Lithuania 3.0, Poland 2.4. In the first half, Lithuania had over 1.5 goals twice, and Poland once. In the second halves, Lithuania had the over 1.5 goals three times, Poland twice. The most common period for Lithuania to score is the 46-60 minute mark (30%), while Poland most often scores between the 16th and 30th minute (33%). Lithuania concedes evenly across all periods, while Poland concedes 67% of their goals in the last 15 minutes.

Corner kick statistics

Lithuania averages 1.8 corners in the last 5 matches, and Poland 3.2. For a total of 9.5 corners, Lithuania had one over, and Poland had two. The odds for over 8.5 corners in the match are 1.80, and under 8.5 is 2.00. Poland is favored in the corner outcome with odds of 1.30.