Prediction for match Lorient — Metz, 04.01.2026

Odds and Outcome Probabilities

In the match between Lorient and Metz, scheduled for January 4, 2026, in France's Ligue 1, bookmakers have made Lorient the favorite. The odds for a Lorient victory are 1.85, a draw is at 3.78, and a Metz win is at 4.77. The probability percentages are as follows: Lorient - 53.27%, draw - 26.07%, Metz - 20.66%. This indicates Lorient's advantage in the pre-match setup, though a draw is also a possibility according to the odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Lorient played as follows: 14.12.2025 Strasbourg - Lorient 0-0, 07.12.2025 Lorient - Lyon 1-0, 30.11.2025 Lorient - Nice 3-1. In the same period, Metz recorded these results: 20.12.2025 Biesheim - Metz 0-3, 13.12.2025 Metz - PSG 2-3, 07.12.2025 Auxerre - Metz 3-1. In their head-to-head on 11.01.2025, Lorient and Metz ended in a 0-0 draw. Over a five-match series, Lorient averages 42.8% possession, receives 0.8 yellow cards, commits 9 fouls, and has 1.4 offsides per game. Metz shows 51% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 10.2 fouls, and 1 offside. This suggests Metz is more active in attacking phases, while Lorient appears more disciplined regarding cards and fouls.

Scoring Streaks

In terms of scoring, Lorient's five-match series shows an average total of 1.8 goals per match, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.6. Metz has an average total of 3.6, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2. Regarding over 2.5 total goals, Lorient has 1 out of 5, while Metz has 4 out of 5. In the first half, Lorient had over 1.5 goals once, Metz three times. In the second half, Lorient had no over 1.5 occurrences, Metz had 3 out of 5. Lorient scores most frequently between 31-45 minutes (67%), while Metz scores late, between 76-90 minutes (44%). Lorient concedes most often in three intervals: 0-15, 31-45, and 61-75 (33% each). Metz concedes most often between 31-45 (30%). Overall, Lorient has a low-scoring profile, while Metz has a high-scoring profile, but Lorient is solid defensively. Considering Lorient had only 1 high-scoring match out of 5, and Metz had 4, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.94 seems optimal - Metz's attacking style and Lorient's stability in attack could lead to three or more goals.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Lorient averages 2.8 corners per game, Metz 3.8. In the last five matches, Lorient exceeded 9.5 total corners three times, while Metz did not. The total market closest to the average corners (6.6) is the 7.5-8.5 line. For a total of 8.5, there are two outcomes: over 8.5 is at 1.61, under 8.5 at 2.22. Lorient is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.50. The most logical bet appears to be on over 8.5 total corners, considering Lorient's frequency of exceeding this total and both teams' attacking intent.