Prediction for match Macara — Alianza Atletico

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Sudamericana tournament on May 22, Macara will face Alianza Atletico. According to the 1X2 odds, Macara is the favorite: their win is priced at 1.47, a draw at 4.38, and Alianza Atletico's victory at 6.68. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Macara's win is estimated at 64.28%, a draw at 21.57%, and Alianza Atletico's win at 14.15%. Among the goal totals, the under 2.5 goals option at 1.96 stands out compared to other odds. Alternative goal totals either have lower odds or require more risk.

Team Results and Statistics

In recent matches, Macara's results were: May 16, 2026 - Macara vs. Independiente del Valle - 0-3, May 10, 2026 - Manta vs. Macara - 0-1, May 7, 2026 - Macara vs. Tigre - 2-2. Alianza Atletico played as follows: May 16, 2026 - College Juan Pablo II vs. Alianza Atletico - 0-2, May 11, 2026 - Deportivo Garcilaso vs. Alianza Atletico - 2-1, May 7, 2026 - Alianza Atletico vs. America de Cali - 0-2. Over a five-match series, Macara averages 53.4% possession, receives 2 yellow cards, commits 10.8 fouls, and records 0.6 offsides per game. Alianza Atletico's averages are: 48.8% possession, 2.2 yellows, 10.2 fouls, 0.8 offsides. In their last head-to-head on May 1, 2026, Alianza Atletico vs. Macara ended 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Macara played over 2.5 goals three times and under twice, while Alianza Atletico went over twice and under three times. The average number of goals in Macara's matches is 2.6, and for Alianza Atletico, it's 2.8. Macara scores an average of 1.2 and concedes 1.4 goals, while Alianza Atletico scores 1.4 and concedes 1.4. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred 2 times out of 5 for both teams, while in the second half, it was 3 times for Macara and 2 for Alianza Atletico. Macara tends to score more frequently between the 31st-45th, 46th-60th, and 61st-75th minutes (33% each), while Alianza Atletico scores in the 16th-30th, 31st-45th, and 76th-90th minutes (33% each). Macara concedes more often between the 16th-75th minutes, and Alianza Atletico at the start and in the 61st-75th minute interval. Overall, despite some high-scoring matches, neither team consistently shows an over-profile in goals, and the frequency of over 2.5 goals does not exceed 3 out of 5 even for Macara. This makes the under 2.5 goals bet at 1.96 the most logical based on the provided data.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Macara averages 7 corners per match, while Alianza Atletico averages 4.2. In the last 5 games, Macara exceeded the over 9.5 corners total four times, and Alianza Atletico twice. Among the corner totals, the one closest to the average sum (11.2) is the 9.5 total, for which both options are available: over 9.5 corners - 2.38, under 9.5 - 1.51. For corners, Macara is the favorite with odds of 1.53. Considering both teams' corner statistics, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified, especially given Macara's frequency of exceeding this total.