Prediction for match Malaga — Burgos, 23.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Segunda on January 23, Malaga will face Burgos. The odds for a Malaga win are 2.28, a draw is priced at 2.99, while a Burgos victory stands at 3.70. The probability distribution for the 1X2 outcomes is as follows: Malaga 42.04%, draw 32.06%, Burgos 25.90%. These figures suggest that Malaga is the favorite, but the gap between the teams isn't significant, and a draw is also highly rated. For the total goals market, the under 2.5 goals bet is priced at 1.55, while over 2.5 goals is at 2.53. The "both teams to score: no" option is at 1.68, and "both teams to score: yes" is at 2.06. For individual totals, Malaga over 1 is at 1.64, and Burgos over 0.5 is at 1.58. Bookmakers lean towards a low-scoring game, but Malaga has a slight edge in chances.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Malaga averages 46.2% possession, 3 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Burgos shows 50% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 12.2 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Recently, Malaga defeated Cordoba 1-0 (18.01.2026), beat AD Ceuta 2-1 (11.01.2026), and Sporting Gijon 3-1 (04.01.2026). In the same period, Burgos won against Huesca 1-0 (18.01.2026), lost to Valencia 0-2 (15.01.2026), and beat Eibar 1-0 (10.01.2026). In their last encounter on 28.09.2025, Burgos defeated Malaga 2-1. Previous meetings also included draws of 2-2 and 1-1, as well as a goalless draw and a 1-0 win for Burgos. Overall, both teams consistently earn points, but Malaga appears more confident based on recent results.

What About Totals and Goals?

In their last 5 matches, Malaga has seen over 2.5 goals in 4 games, and under in 1. The average number of goals in Malaga's matches is 3, with the team scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Burgos, on the other hand, has not seen over 2.5 goals in any of their last 5 games, all under. The average total in Burgos' matches is 1.6, with the team scoring only 0.6 and conceding 1 goal per game. By halves, Malaga had over 1.5 goals in the second half 3 times, and once in the first half. Burgos didn't see over 1.5 goals in any half in their last 5 matches. Malaga most frequently scores between the 31-45 minutes (57%), while Burgos scores in the same 31-45 and 61-75 minutes (40% each). Malaga most often concedes between 46-60 minutes (33%), and Burgos in three different intervals: 0-15, 46-60, and 76-90 (33% each). Considering Burgos' low scoring and Malaga's solid defense, the under 2.5 goals at 1.55 looks like the most logical bet for this match. Malaga is capable of controlling the game, while Burgos rarely scores and isn't inclined towards high-scoring matches.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Malaga averages 4 corners in their last 5 matches, Burgos 5. The over 9.5 corners occurred 4 times out of 5 for Malaga, and 2 out of 5 for Burgos. Among the available corner totals, there is a line for 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 2.31, under 9.5 is at 1.50. Malaga is favored in the corners market with odds of 1.67. Given both teams' average corner-taking activity, betting on over 9.5 corners could be considered, but the under 9.5 at 1.50 seems more reliable, considering Burgos' stats. Malaga also has a higher percentage of games with over 9.5 corners, which could add some dynamics in this aspect.