Prediction for match Mali — Senegal, 09.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

On January 9, 2026, Mali will face Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations. Senegal is highlighted as the favorite according to the odds: a win for them is priced at 1.66, which corresponds to a 59.00% probability. A draw is at 3.66 (26.76%), while a win for Mali is at 6.88 (14.24%). This range of odds reflects Senegal's advantage in current form and recent performances. Overall, bookmakers expect Senegal to control the game and create more dangerous chances.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Mali has an average possession of 46.75%, receives 3.25 yellow cards, commits 14.25 fouls, and 1.25 offsides per game. Senegal appears more confident with 60.8% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 17.2 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In their most recent matches, Mali played against Tunisia (4-3), Comoros (0-0), and Morocco (1-1). During the same period, Senegal faced Sudan (3-1), Benin (3-0), and DR Congo (1-1). The last head-to-head on October 14, 2023, ended in a 0-0 draw. These results show that Senegal consistently gains points and maintains high discipline, while Mali often struggles in attack.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Mali's last five matches, the total over 2.5 goals never occurred, while under 2.5 was recorded 5 out of 5 times. Conversely, Senegal had over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches and under in 2. In terms of halves, Mali never had over 1.5 goals in the first half, but 2 out of 5 times in the second half. Senegal had over 1.5 goals twice in the first half and 3 times in the second half out of 5. The average goal per match for Mali is 1.5, and for Senegal, it's 2.8. Mali scores most frequently between 31-45 minutes (50%), while Senegal scores in the same interval (33%). Mali is most vulnerable to conceding in the final minutes (76-90 minutes - 67%), while Senegal is in the 61-75 minutes range (40%). These statistics indicate that Senegal consistently scores and creates chances, while Mali rarely shows high scoring ability. Considering these figures, the bet on "Both Teams to Score: No" at 1.54 seems logical, given Mali's low scoring and Senegal's solid defense.

Corner Betting

In terms of average corners, Senegal significantly outperforms their opponent: 6 compared to Mali's 3 per match. In a series of five games, both teams had over 9.5 corners twice. When considering bets on total corners, the closest option to the average sum (9) is 9.5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 2.77, and for under, it's 1.38. Senegal is traditionally active on the wings and frequently earns set-pieces, as confirmed by recent match statistics. In such a situation, considering a bet on over 9.5 corners makes sense if high Senegal attacking activity and pressure on Mali's goal are expected.