Prediction for match Manchester City — Chelsea, 04.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

Manchester City will face Chelsea in the Premier League on January 4, 2026. The odds for a Manchester City win are 1.68, a draw is at 4.68, and a Chelsea win is 4.88. In terms of percentages: Manchester City is rated at 58.71%, a draw at 21.08%, and Chelsea at 20.21%. This setup reflects Manchester City's advantage according to bookmakers' expectations and recent match statistics. Options for betting on totals and both teams to score are also presented with working odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Manchester City played as follows: January 1 - Sunderland vs Manchester City 0-0, December 27 - Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City 1-2, December 20 - Manchester City vs West Ham 3-0. Chelsea's last three results were: December 30 - Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2-2, December 27 - Chelsea vs Aston Villa 1-2, December 20 - Newcastle vs Chelsea 2-2. In their head-to-head match on January 25, 2025, Manchester City defeated Chelsea 3-1. In additional metrics, Manchester City maintains 64.4% possession over a five-match series, records 1.2 yellow cards, commits 9.8 fouls, and has 1 offside per game. Chelsea, over the same period, holds 59% possession, receives 2.8 yellows, commits 11.4 fouls, and records 0.4 offsides.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Regarding goal metrics, Manchester City has an average total of 2.2 over the last 5 games, scoring 2 and conceding 0.2. Chelsea's average total is 3.4, scoring 2 and conceding 1.4. For over 2.5 totals: Manchester City - 3 out of 5, Chelsea - 4 out of 5. In the first half, Manchester City recorded more than 1.5 goals 1 time out of 5, Chelsea - 3 times out of 5. In the second half, Manchester City - 2 out of 5, Chelsea - 3 out of 5 for over 1.5. In terms of scoring intervals, Manchester City most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th and the 61st and 75th minutes (33% each), while Chelsea scores most between the 16th and 30th minutes (38%). Both clubs show stable scoring rates, and the over 2.5 total is supported by both teams. In this scenario, a bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.56 looks optimal: the attacking stats of both sides and the frequency of over 2.5 totals allow for expecting at least three goals.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Manchester City averages 4.6 corners over the last 5 matches, Chelsea - 6.8. For over 9.5 corners: Manchester City - 1 time out of 5, Chelsea - 5 out of 5. Among the corner lines, the total closest to the average sum (11.4) is 11.5. The total of more than 11.5 corners is at 3.16, less than 11.5 is at 1.31. For the outcome on corners, Manchester City is the favorite with odds of 1.49. Considering Chelsea's high activity on corners and Manchester City's stable figures, expecting a double-digit number of corners makes sense, but betting on over 11.5 corners is quite risky, and a more reliable bet seems to be on Manchester City to win on corners.