Prediction for match Manchester United — Brighton, 11.01.2026

Odds and Probabilities for Match Outcome

Manchester United and Brighton will face off on January 11 in the FA Cup. Manchester United is favored to win with odds of 1.82, corresponding to a 51.47% probability. Brighton's win is priced at 3.84 (24.39%), and a draw at 3.88 (24.14%). Both teams to score: yes is at 1.49, no at 2.44. For total goals, the odds for over 2.5 are 1.53, and under 2.5 are 2.44. Double chance options are: 1X at 1.24, X2 at 1.94. The most likely outcome according to the odds is a Manchester United victory, but the probabilities are close enough to promise an intriguing match.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Manchester United played as follows: January 7 - Burnley - Manchester United 2-2, January 4 - Leeds - Manchester United 1-1, December 30 - Manchester United - Wolverhampton 1-1. Brighton's recent matches include: January 7 - Manchester City - Brighton 1-1, January 3 - Brighton - Burnley 2-0, December 30 - West Ham - Brighton 2-2. In their last head-to-head on October 25, 2025, Manchester United defeated Brighton 4-2. Over the last five matches, Manchester United's possession was 53.4%, with an average of 1 yellow card, 7.4 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Brighton's possession was 52.8%, with 3.2 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. These stats show Manchester United plays more cautiously in defense, while Brighton tends to receive more warnings and commit more fouls.

Goal Scoring Trends

In their last five matches, Manchester United's average total goals per game is 2.4, while Brighton's is 2.2. Both teams score an average of 1.2 goals per game, with Manchester United conceding 1.2 and Brighton 1 on average. Both teams had over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches, and under in 3 out of 5. Over 1.5 goals in the first half occurred for Manchester United 2 times out of 5, and for Brighton 1 time out of 5. In the second half, over 1.5 goals happened for Manchester United 2 times, and for Brighton 1 time. Manchester United often scores between 16-30 and 61-75 minutes (29% each), and concedes between 31-45 and 46-60 minutes (40% each). Brighton scores most frequently between 0-15, 31-45, and 46-60 minutes (29% each), and concedes between 31-45 and 61-75 minutes (40% each). Considering both teams' average scoring, moderate occurrences of over 2.5 goals, and goal distribution across halves, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.53 seems justified.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Manchester United averages 5 corners per game over their last five matches, while Brighton averages 3.2. For over 9.5 corners, Manchester United has exceeded this in 4 out of 5 games, and Brighton in 1 out of 5. The closest total to the average (8.2) in the line is 8.5: over 8.5 is priced at 1.60, under at 2.25. Manchester United is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.87. Given the corner statistics, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems logical, as Manchester United consistently delivers many corners, often exceeding 9 per match. Brighton less frequently reaches high numbers, but the overall corner profile supports the over 8.5 option.