Prediction for match Manchester United — Manchester City, 17.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Premier League's marquee match on January 17, Manchester United will face Manchester City. The odds for a Manchester City win are 2.02, for Manchester United - 3.74, and for a draw - 3.94. In terms of probability percentages, a Manchester City victory is estimated at 48.71%, Manchester United at 26.31%, and a draw at 24.98%. Manchester City is favored by both odds and percentages, highlighting analysts' confidence in the team's strength. The goal total line features a bet on over 2.75 at 1.57, and under 2.5 at 2.49. For both teams to score: yes is at 1.44, no at 2.62. Among individual totals, Manchester United over 1 is at 1.51, Manchester City over 1.5 is at 1.69. For halves: the total for the 2nd half over 1.5 is at 1.72. In the correct score market, the lowest odds are for 1-1 (7.50) and 1-2 (8.50).

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Manchester United averages 54% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 9.2 fouls, and 2.2 offsides per game. Manchester City looks stronger in these metrics: 63.2% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 8.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Manchester United's last three matches: January 11 - Manchester United vs Brighton 1-2, January 7 - Burnley vs Manchester United 2-2, January 4 - Leeds vs Manchester United 1-1. Manchester City played as follows: January 13 - Newcastle vs Manchester City 0-2, January 10 - Manchester City vs Exeter City 10-1, January 7 - Manchester City vs Brighton 1-1. In the head-to-head meeting on September 14, 2025, Manchester City confidently defeated Manchester United 3-0.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Manchester United vs Manchester City Match

In their last five matches, Manchester United shows an average total of 2.4 goals, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2. Manchester City's figures are higher: 3.4 goals on average, 2.8 scored and only 0.6 conceded. For matches over 2.5 goals, Manchester United has 2 out of 5, Manchester City only 1 out of 5. By halves, Manchester United has over 1.5 in the first half only 1 out of 5, in the second half - 3 out of 5. Manchester City similarly: 1 out of 5 in the first half over 1.5, 2 out of 5 in the second. Manchester United scores most frequently in the 16-30 and 61-75 minute intervals (33% each), and concedes in the 46-60 and 61-75 minute intervals (33% each). Manchester City scores most often in the 31-45 minute interval (33%) and concedes in the final minutes - 76-90 (60%). Both clubs have attacking potential, especially Manchester City, which consistently scores nearly 3 goals per game and concedes few. Meanwhile, Manchester United regularly finds their chances, as confirmed by their average scoring. Based on the statistics, a bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.57 seems logical: Manchester City is capable of ensuring high scoring, and Manchester United can keep up the pace.

Analysis of Corner Totals

On average, Manchester United earns 5.2 corners, Manchester City - 6.4 per match. In the last 5 meetings, both teams had a total over 9.5 corners 3 times out of 5. The corner total line offers a pair at 9.5: over 9.5 is at 1.84, under 9.5 at 1.86. For corner outcomes, Manchester City is the favorite with odds of 1.62. The combined average of both teams is close to 11.6, confirming a high probability of exceeding the 9.5 total. In such a matchup, it's reasonable to consider a bet on the over for corners, given both teams' attacking focus and frequent flank deliveries. Manchester City consistently delivers more than 6 corners per game, and Manchester United also often surpasses the 5-corner mark, creating conditions for a productive match in this aspect.