Prediction for match Marseille — Lyon

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

In Ligue 1 on March 1st, Marseille will face Lyon. The odds for the outcome are: Marseille to win at 2.01, a draw and Lyon to win both at 3.86. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 48.98% chance of Marseille winning, 25.51% for a draw, and 25.51% for Lyon winning. For the total over 2.5 goals, the odds are 1.75, while under is 2.25. Both teams to score: yes is at 1.58, no at 2.26. For individual team totals: Marseille over 1.5 goals is 1.84, Lyon over 1.5 goals is 2.74. A draw in the first half is at 2.25. In corner bets, Marseille to win is at 1.55, Lyon at 3.20. Recent encounters show both teams have strengths in attack and defense, reflected in the close odds for major outcomes.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Marseille has averaged 50.6% possession, 3 yellow cards, 15.4 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Lyon averages 53.6% possession, 2 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In Marseille's last three matches: February 20, 2026, Brest vs Marseille 2-0, February 14, 2026, Marseille vs Strasbourg 2-2, February 8, 2026, PSG vs Marseille 5-0. For Lyon: February 22, 2026, Strasbourg vs Lyon 3-1, February 15, 2026, Lyon vs Nice 2-0, February 7, 2026, Nantes vs Lyon 0-1. In their last head-to-head on August 31, 2025, Lyon beat Marseille 1-0. These stats highlight the difference in style: Marseille plays more aggressively, while Lyon is more cautious with fewer cards.

Goal Scoring Patterns

Over a series of five matches, Marseille averages a total of 3.6 goals per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.2. Lyon averages a total of 2 goals, scoring 1.4 and conceding only 0.6. For matches with over 2.5 goals: Marseille has 4 out of 5 over, Lyon has 1 out of 5 over, 4 under. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred twice for Marseille, none for Lyon. In the second half, over 1.5 goals happened 4 times for Marseille, 2 for Lyon. For scoring frequency: Marseille most often scores between 0-15 minutes (29%), and concedes late (76-90, 40%). Lyon most often scores at the end of halves (31-45 and 76-90, 38% each), and concedes between 16-30 and 46-60 (50% each). Both teams average 1.4 goals, supporting the both teams to score: yes option. Marseille has shown high scoring in recent matches, while Lyon has reliable defense but also finds goals. Considering Marseille's over 2.5 goal trend and Lyon's consistent scoring, the bet on both teams to score: yes at 1.58 seems reasonable.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

For average corners: Marseille delivers 3 per match, Lyon 4.8. In the last 5 games, Marseille only surpassed 9.5 corners once, Lyon twice. Among corner totals closest to the average sum (7.8), the 7.5 line: over 7.5 corners is at 1.33, under 7.5 at 3.05. Also close is the 8.5 total: over 8.5 is at 1.57, under 8.5 at 2.25. The bet on Marseille to win on corners is at 1.55. Considering Lyon delivers more but Marseille often plays defensively, betting on over 8.5 corners seems justified, but moderate corner counts are also possible.