Prediction for match Marseille — Nantes, 04.01.2026

Match Analysis: Marseille vs Nantes

Marseille and Nantes will face off on January 4, 2026, in Ligue 1. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: a win for Marseille is priced at 1.27, a draw at 6.45, and a win for Nantes at 13.70. The probability of a Marseille victory is 77.54%, a draw is 15.27%, and a Nantes win is 7.19%. This range of odds and percentages highlights Marseille as the clear favorite in this matchup. The goal total options are also quite intriguing: over 2.5 goals is at 1.45, and over 2.75 goals is at 1.56. Both teams to score: yes - 1.98, no - 1.75. The most appealing bet in terms of statistics and odds seems to be on over 2.75 goals at 1.56.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Marseille averages 64.4% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 10 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Nantes has lower possession at 43.8%, with an average of 1.8 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Marseille achieved a big win over Bourg-en-Bresse 01 (6-0), defeated Monaco (1-0), and lost to Union Saint-Gilloise (2-3). Nantes, in their last three, beat Concarneau (5-3), lost to Angers (1-4), and fell to Lens (1-2). In their head-to-head on March 2, 2025, Marseille was victorious 2-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Marseille scores an average of 2.4 goals per match while conceding 1, and Nantes scores 1.6 while conceding 2.6. In the last five matches, Marseille's total over 2.5 occurred 3 times, and Nantes' 4 times. For first-half goals, only 1 of Marseille's last 5 matches had more than 1.5 goals, compared to 2 of Nantes'. In the second half, both teams tend to be more prolific: Marseille had 3 out of 5 over 1.5, and Nantes also 3 out of 5. The most frequent goal interval for Marseille is the 61-75 minute mark (50%), while for Nantes, it's the 76-90 minute mark (31%). Marseille concedes more often early (0-15 minutes - 27%) and late (76-90 minutes - 27%), whereas Nantes concedes more at the end of the first half (31-45 minutes - 33%). The total_goals_in_match average for Marseille is 3.4, and for Nantes, it's 4.2. All this suggests a high likelihood of a high-scoring game and the over 2.75 goals bet coming through.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Marseille averages 6 corners per match, while Nantes averages only 1. In the last five matches, Marseille's total corners over 9.5 occurred 3 times, compared to Nantes' 1 time. For corner totals, the line is: over 9.5 - 1.82, under 9.5 - 1.92. For corners, Marseille is the favorite with odds of 1.13. Given this difference in averages and frequencies, it makes sense to consider a bet on Marseille's individual corners over 5.5, as well as the overall total over 9.5 as a potential wager.