Prediction for match Marseille — Toulouse

Odds and Probability Percentages

On March 4th, Marseille will face Toulouse in the Coupe de France. Marseille is favored with odds of 1.58 to win, a draw is at 4.05, and a Toulouse victory stands at 5.35. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Marseille 59.33%, draw 23.15%, Toulouse 17.52%. Marseille is clearly favored in this matchup, reflecting the difference in recent performances and attacking potential. The betting line also offers markets on totals, both teams to score, individual performances, and corners, allowing for various betting options.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Marseille played as follows: on March 1st, Marseille defeated Lyon 3-2; on February 20th, they lost to Brest 2-0; and on February 14th, they drew with Strasbourg 2-2. During the same period, Toulouse played these matches: on February 28th, they lost to Rennes 1-0; on February 21st, they drew 1-1 with Paris FC; and on February 15th, they lost to Le Havre 2-1. Over their last five games, Marseille averages 51.2% possession, 3.4 yellow cards, 15.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per match. Toulouse averages higher possession at 53%, 2.2 yellow cards, 15.2 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. Their last head-to-head on November 29th, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Marseille significantly outperforms Toulouse in terms of scoring: over a five-game span, they average a total of 3.8 goals per match, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.2. Toulouse's numbers are much lower: 1.6 goals per game, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1. Marseille has seen over 2.5 goals in 4 out of their last 5 matches, while Toulouse only in 1 out of 5. In terms of halves, Marseille had 2 out of 5 matches with two or more goals in the first half, and 4 out of 5 in the second half over 1.5. Toulouse had only 1 out of 5 in the first half and none in the second half over 1.5. Marseille most frequently scores in the 0-15 minute interval (27%), while Toulouse scores most in the 31-45 and 76-90 intervals (33% each). Marseille often concedes late (76-90, 60%), while Toulouse concedes in the 31-45 interval (100%). These stats suggest that Marseille plays more offensively, while Toulouse struggles in attack. In this scenario, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 2.05 seems justified: Toulouse has low scoring output, and Marseille, despite their attacking profile, might face a defensive opponent.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Marseille averages 3.8 corners per match, while Toulouse averages 6.8. Over the last five matches, only 1 out of 5 for Marseille went over 9.5 corners, while 3 out of 5 for Toulouse did. The closest line to the average total (10.6) is 10.5: over 10.5 corners is at 2.83, under 10.5 is at 1.37. Marseille is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.46. In such a situation, considering over 10.5 corners could be logical, given Toulouse's high activity in this aspect and Marseille's potential to increase pressure if needed.