Prediction for match Mazatlán — Guadalajara

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

The match between Mazatlán and Guadalajara in Liga MX will take place on February 7th. According to the 1X2 odds, Guadalajara is the clear favorite: their win is priced at 1.43, a draw at 4.50, and a Mazatlán victory at 6.58. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 65.14% for a Guadalajara win, 20.70% for a draw, and 14.16% for Mazatlán. This reflects not only the current form but also the class difference between the teams. Additionally, the odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.61, and "both teams to score: yes" is at 1.75, hinting at the possibility of a high-scoring game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Mazatlán has an average possession rate of 40%, while Guadalajara has 54.4%. Mazatlán averages 2.2 yellow cards per game, compared to Guadalajara's 1.6. Fouls are nearly evenly distributed: 11.4 for Mazatlán and 11 for Guadalajara. Guadalajara leads in offsides with 2.2 compared to 1.2 for Mazatlán. In their last three matches, Mazatlán lost to Atlas 0-1, Monterrey 1-5, and Puebla 1-2. Guadalajara defeated Atlético San Luis 3-2, Querétaro 2-1, and Juárez 1-0. The last head-to-head encounter ended with a 2-0 victory for Guadalajara.

Goal Scoring Patterns

Over a five-match series, Mazatlán averages 3 goals per game, while Guadalajara averages 3.2. Mazatlán scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 2.2, whereas Guadalajara scores 2 and concedes 1.2. Both teams have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches. In terms of halves, Mazatlán has over 1.5 goals in the first half in 3 out of 5 matches and over 1.5 in the second half in 1 out of 5, while Guadalajara has over 1.5 in both halves in 3 out of 5. Mazatlán most frequently scores in the first 15 minutes (50%) and concedes between 16-30 minutes (40%). Guadalajara most often scores between 31-45 minutes (33%) and concedes in the same 31-45 and in the final 76-90 minutes (38%). These data confirm that Guadalajara is consistently productive, while Mazatlán concedes a lot, making the bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.61 logical.

Corner Totals Analysis

Mazatlán averages 3.8 corners per match, while Guadalajara averages 5. For over 9.5 corners, Mazatlán has 3 out of 5 matches over, and Guadalajara has 1 out of 5. Among the totals for which there are odds, the closest to the sum of the averages (8.8) is the total of 8.5: over 8.5 is priced at 1.43, under 8.5 at 2.50. For corner outcomes, Guadalajara is the favorite with odds of 1.37. Considering the statistics, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 8.5 corners and also Guadalajara's advantage in this aspect.