Prediction for match Mazatlán — Monterrey

Mazatlán vs Monterrey Match Analysis

In Liga MX on January 17, Mazatlán will face Monterrey. The odds suggest Monterrey is the favorite: their win is priced at 1.75, a draw at 3.70, and a Mazatlán victory at 4.34. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 53.30% for a Monterrey win, 25.21% for a draw, and 21.49% for Mazatlán. This distribution is supported by recent results, with Monterrey consistently collecting points and showing more stable performances. A competitive match is expected, but Monterrey seems preferable based on several indicators.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Mazatlán lost to Puebla 1-2 on January 13, lost to Juárez 1-2 on January 10, and drew 1-1 with Necaxa on November 8. Monterrey, on the other hand, defeated Necaxa 2-0 on January 14, lost to Toluca 0-1 on January 11, and lost to Toluca 2-3 on December 7. Over a five-match period, Mazatlán's average ball possession is 43.2%, with 2.4 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Monterrey averages 51.6% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 13.4 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. In their last head-to-head on August 18, 2025, Monterrey beat Mazatlán 3-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over the last five matches, Mazatlán's average total goals is 2.6, while Monterrey's is 2.4. Mazatlán scores an average of 1 goal per game and concedes 1.6, whereas Monterrey scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2. For over 2.5 goals, Mazatlán has 3 out of 5, and Monterrey 2 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred 3 times for Mazatlán and 2 times for Monterrey. In the second half, Mazatlán had no over 1.5 goals, while Monterrey had 3 out of 5. Mazatlán tends to score in the first 45 minutes (29% in each of the three segments) and concedes late (76-90 minutes, 33%). Monterrey scores most often between 16 and 60 minutes (29% in each segment) and concedes most frequently from the 46th to the 60th minute (33%). Considering these stats and the average scoring of both teams, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.77 seems justified: both teams are capable of scoring, and Monterrey traditionally plays high-scoring matches in head-to-heads.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Mazatlán averages 3.6 corners per match, while Monterrey averages 2.6. In a five-match series, the over 9.5 corners occurred 2 times for both teams. The closest to the average corners total is 6.0, but the lines offer 8.5, 9.5, and 10.5. For the 9.5 total, the odds are: over 9.5 at 1.79, under 9.5 at 1.95. Monterrey is the favorite for corner outcomes with odds of 1.80. Overall, considering average stats, a bet on over 9.5 corners can be considered, but the frequency isn't very high, so caution is advised when betting on corner outcomes.