Prediction for match Metz — Lille, 06.02.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In Ligue 1 on February 6th, Metz will face Lille. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: Lille's victory is priced at 1.79, a draw at 4.04, and a Metz win at 4.78. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Lille - 55.02%, draw - 24.38%, Metz - 20.60%. These figures highlight Lille as the favorite for the match, while Metz is given the least chance of success. Betting on Lille to win seems the most justified based on the provided odds and probabilities.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Metz has an average possession of 52.2%, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 9.4 fouls, and records 1.4 offsides per game. Over the same period, Lille holds possession 56.6% of the time, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 11 fouls, and records 1.6 offsides. Metz's last three matches: 01.02.2026 Angers - Metz 1-0, 25.01.2026 Metz - Lyon 2-5, 18.01.2026 Strasbourg - Metz 2-1. Lille played as follows: 01.02.2026 Lyon - Lille 1-0, 29.01.2026 Lille - Freiburg 1-0, 25.01.2026 Lille - Strasbourg 1-4. In their last head-to-head on 26.10.2025, Lille thrashed Metz 6-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last 5 matches, Metz has an average total goals of 3.4, while Lille has 2.6. Metz scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 2.6, while Lille scores 0.6 and concedes 2. Both teams have gone over 2.5 total goals in 3 out of 5 matches, indicating a tendency for high-scoring games. In the first half, Metz exceeded 1.5 total goals three times out of five, Lille once. In the second half, Metz went over twice, Lille three times. In terms of goal timing, Metz most frequently scores between the 31st-45th and 61st-75th minutes (33% each), while Lille scores most often at the end of the match (76th-90th, 38%). Metz concedes most often from the 16th to the 30th minute (36%), Lille also from the 16th to the 30th (40%). Considering these data, and the fact that their head-to-heads often feature high-scoring matches, a bet on Lille to win seems logical: the team is consistently stronger in both defense and attack, while Metz regularly concedes a lot.

Corners in the Match

Metz averages 3.2 corners per game, Lille 6.4. In the last 5 matches, Metz went over 9.5 total corners once, Lille twice. The line for total corners is set at 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 1.82, under 9.5 at 1.93. Lille is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.35. The teams collectively average 9.6 corners per match, which is close to the chosen total. It makes sense to consider the over 9.5 corners option, given Lille's activity and Metz's low productivity in this aspect.