Prediction for match Metz — Lyon, 25.01.2026

Match Analysis: Metz vs Lyon

The Ligue 1 clash between Metz and Lyon is scheduled for January 25, 2026. According to the 1X2 odds, Lyon is the favorite with odds of 1.76 for their win, 4.12 for a draw, and 4.93 for Metz to win. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Lyon is rated at 56.05%, a draw at 23.94%, and Metz at 20.01%. This setup reflects Lyon's advantage in current form and recent results. Interestingly, the gap in win probability between the teams is quite significant, as confirmed by their scoring statistics.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Metz had an average possession of 54.6%, received 2 yellow cards per game, committed 9.6 fouls, and had 0.4 offsides. During the same period, Lyon controlled the ball 57.2% of the time, received 2.6 yellow cards, committed 14 fouls, and had 1.2 offsides. In their last three matches, Metz lost to Strasbourg 1-2 (18.01.2026), lost to Montpellier 0-4 (11.01.2026), and drew with Lorient 1-1 (04.01.2026). Lyon, in their last three encounters, defeated Young Boys 1-0 (22.01.2026), beat Brest 2-1 (18.01.2026), and won against Lille 2-1 (11.01.2026). In their head-to-head on August 23, 2025, Lyon was stronger than Metz with a 3-0 victory.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Metz has an average total of 3.4 goals, while Lyon's is 2.4. Metz scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 2, whereas Lyon scores 1.8 times and concedes only 0.6. Regarding over 2.5 goals: 4 out of 5 matches for Metz ended with three or more goals, and 3 out of 5 for Lyon. In the first half, both teams recorded over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches. In the second half, Metz was also productive - 3 out of 5 over 1.5, while Lyon had only 1 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals: Metz most frequently scores between 31-45 minutes (40%), Lyon in the same interval (60%). Metz most frequently concedes between 16-30 and 61-75 minutes (25% each), Lyon between 31-45 minutes (50%). Considering Metz's high scoring and Lyon's consistent attack, along with frequent over 2.5 goals, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.79 seems justified. This bet is supported by the average goal figures of both teams and the intervals where they are most dangerous in front of the opponent's goal.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

In the last 5 matches, Metz averaged 3 corners, and Lyon 3.4. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for both teams is 0 out of 5. In the corner totals market, the line closest to the average figures is 6.5-7.5, but there is a pair for the total of 9.5: over 9.5 is at 1.87, under 9.5 also at 1.87. In terms of corners, Lyon is the favorite with odds of 1.47. Considering the low average corner numbers and the absence of over 9.5 in recent matches, it makes sense to consider betting on fewer corners in this matchup.