Prediction for match Middlesbrough — Derby County, 29.11.2025

Match Analysis: Middlesbrough vs Derby County

In the English Championship on November 29, an intriguing clash is set between Middlesbrough and Derby County. The odds for a Middlesbrough win are 1.71, a draw is at 3.52, and a Derby County victory is valued at 5.04. The probability distribution for the outcomes is: Middlesbrough 54.79%, draw 26.62%, Derby County 18.59%. Bookmakers favor Middlesbrough as the favorite in this matchup, but the difference in chances is not huge, leaving room for competition. The over 2.5 goals market is priced at 2.08, while the under 2.5 is at 1.72, indicating a slight lean towards a low-scoring game, but overall, the match could be quite lively by the division's standards.

Team Results and Statistics

Over the last five matches, Middlesbrough averages 58.2% possession, 6.4 corners, 1 yellow card, 11 fouls, and 3 offsides per game. Derby County averages 36.4% possession, 4.8 corners, 1.8 yellow cards, 12.6 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per match. Recent results for Middlesbrough: 25.11 - Middlesbrough 2-4 Coventry, 22.11 - Oxford United 1-1 Middlesbrough, 08.11 - Middlesbrough 2-1 Birmingham. For Derby County: 25.11 - Swansea City 1-2 Derby County, 22.11 - Derby County 2-3 Watford, 08.11 - Blackburn Rovers 1-2 Derby County. In their head-to-head on 01.03.2025, Middlesbrough won 1-0 against Derby County, with under 2.5 goals hitting. In the last five matches, Middlesbrough has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, while Derby County has 3 wins and 2 losses.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Middlesbrough's last five games, over 2.5 goals occurred 3 times, while under 2.5 happened 2 times. For Derby County, over 2.5 goals hit in all 5 matches. In first halves, Middlesbrough has 3 out of 5 over 1.5, Derby County has 1 out of 5. In second halves, Middlesbrough has only 1 out of 5 over 1.5, while Derby County has 4 out of 5. Average goals per game: Middlesbrough 3.2, Derby County 3.6, with Middlesbrough scoring 1.2 and conceding 2, Derby County scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4. Middlesbrough most often scores between 31-45 minutes (44%), and concedes late (76-90 minutes, 43%). Derby County is most prolific late in the game: 61-75 and 76-90 minutes at 29% each, and concedes most between 46-60 minutes (27%). This goal distribution suggests a high pace and both teams' tendency for productive finishes. In this context, betting on over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08 seems justified: all recent Derby County matches went over, and Middlesbrough's average total exceeds 3 goals.

Corner Totals Analysis

On average, Middlesbrough takes 6.4 corners per game, Derby County 4.8. In the last five matches, Middlesbrough had only 1 out of 5 games over 9.5 corners, while Derby County had 4 out of 5. The closest total to their averages is 11 (6.4+4.8=11.2). Odds for over 11 corners are 2.36, under 11 is 1.50. Middlesbrough is favored on corners with odds of 1.36. Both teams frequently earn corners, especially Middlesbrough, increasing the likelihood of higher corner totals. It makes sense to consider over 9.5 or 10 corners, but in the long run, betting on Middlesbrough to win the corner count seems most reliable. Also, Derby County had over 9.5 corners in 4 out of 5 matches, adding to the picture of high activity in this component.