Prediction for match Mirassol — Bahia

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In Brazil's Serie A on April 11, 2026, Mirassol will face Bahia. The odds for a Mirassol victory are 2.39, a draw is rated at 3.37, and a Bahia win is at 3.06. The probabilities for each outcome are as follows: Mirassol - 40.16%, draw - 28.48%, Bahia - 31.36%. Among the options, the under 2.5 total goals with odds of 1.88 stands out compared to other markets. This choice is driven by Mirassol's low scoring and Bahia's moderate attacking activity in recent matches.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three games, Mirassol had the following results: on 08.04.2026, Mirassol defeated Lanus 1-0, lost to RB Bragantino 0-1 on 05.04.2026, and lost to Botafogo 3-2 on 01.04.2026. Bahia's last three matches ended as follows: a 1-2 loss to Palmeiras on 05.04.2026, a 3-0 victory over Atletico Paranaense on 01.04.2026, and a 4-1 loss to Remo on 22.03.2026. In their head-to-head on 31.08.2025, Mirassol defeated Bahia 5-1. Additional stats show Mirassol has an average possession of 58.4% over five matches, receives 2.6 yellow cards, commits 10.6 fouls, and records 1.6 offsides per game. Bahia maintains 55.4% possession, receives 2 yellow cards, commits 15.6 fouls, and is caught offside 2.6 times per match.

Goals by Match Statistics

In their last five matches, Mirassol exceeded the 2.5 total goals line only once, with four low-scoring outcomes. Bahia saw three of their last five matches end with three or more goals, but two were under. The average goals in Mirassol's matches are 1.8, scoring only 0.6 goals per game and conceding 1.2. Bahia's matches average 2.8 goals, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2. Mirassol exceeded the 1.5 total goals line in the first and second halves only once in five games. Bahia scored two or more goals in the first half three times out of five, and exceeded the 1.5 total goals line in the second half twice. Mirassol distributes their goals evenly across all intervals, with 20% in each fifteen-minute segment. Bahia most often scores at the end of the first half (31-45 minutes) and the start of the second half (46-60 minutes) - 30% each. Mirassol is most vulnerable to conceding between 16-30, 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes - 25% in each. Bahia concedes most often at the end of the first half (31-45 minutes) - 40%. Mirassol shows low scoring ability, while Bahia lacks consistent attack, making the under 2.5 total goals a logical choice.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Mirassol averages 7 corners per match, while Bahia averages 5.4. In their last five matches, both teams exceeded the 9.5 corners total three times out of five. The closest total to their average is 12.5, but only lower totals are available in the line. The most relevant option is over 9.5 and under 9.5 corners. Although odds are not specified, the frequency of exceeding this total at 3 out of 5 for both teams suggests the match could be quite active in terms of corner kicks. A bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified based on recent game statistics. It's also worth noting that Mirassol earns more corners than Bahia, which could impact the match dynamics.