Prediction for match Monterrey — Toluca, 04.12.2025

Match Analysis: Monterrey vs Toluca

In Liga MX on December 4th, Monterrey will face Toluca, and according to bookmaker odds, a closely contested battle is expected. A win for Monterrey is priced at 2.67, a draw at 3.44, and a win for Toluca at 2.42. The probability percentages for the outcomes are distributed as follows: Monterrey - 34.73%, draw - 26.96%, Toluca - 38.32%. Despite Toluca having a slight edge in chances, both teams have relatively equal prospects for a positive result, as reflected in the close odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Monterrey lost to Club América 1-2 on November 29, defeated Club América 2-0 on November 27, and lost to Guadalajara 2-4 on November 8. During the same period, Toluca had the following results: a 0-0 draw with Juárez on November 30, a 2-1 win over Juárez on November 27, and a 2-0 victory against Club América on November 9. On average over the last five matches, Monterrey maintains 49.8% possession, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 12.4 fouls, and is caught offside 0.8 times per game. Toluca has higher possession at 58.2%, 1.6 yellow cards, the same number of fouls - 12.4, and 2.4 offsides per match. In their last head-to-head on September 25, Toluca thrashed Monterrey 6-2.

Goals by Match Statistics

Over a five-match span, Monterrey shows an average total of 3 goals, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 per game. Toluca's average total goals over five matches is 1.8, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding only 0.6. Both teams have the same record for over 2.5 goals, achieving it 2 out of 5 times, while going under 3 times. In the first half, the over 1.5 goals occurred once for each team, while in the second half, Monterrey went over 1.5 goals 2 out of 5 times, Toluca 1 out of 5. Monterrey most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minutes (36%), conceding between the 61st and 75th and 76th and 90th minutes (50% each). Toluca scores most often in the first 15 minutes (40%) and concedes in the 46th to 60th minute interval (50%). Overall, neither team is particularly high-scoring, and the under 3.25 goals occurred quite regularly. The optimal choice seems to be a bet on under 3.25 goals with odds of 1.56.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Monterrey averages 2.2 corners over five matches, while Toluca averages 6.8. Monterrey never exceeded a total of over 9.5 corners, while Toluca did so 3 out of 5 times. Among corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (9) is 9.5, for which both odds are available: over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.87, and under 9.5 is also at 1.87. In corner betting, Monterrey has a slight edge with odds of 2.08. In this situation, it makes sense to consider a total corners bet closer to 9-10, given Toluca's high activity on set pieces and Monterrey's low numbers.