Prediction for match Monza — Bari

Match Analysis: Monza vs Bari

On April 11, 2026, in Serie B, Monza and Bari will face off. The odds for the match outcomes are as follows: Monza win at 1.34, draw at 4.90, and Bari win at 8.50. According to the probabilities calculated by the bookmakers, Monza has a 69.88% chance of success, a draw is at 19.11%, and Bari has an 11.02% chance. This setup reflects confidence in Monza's advantage, but a draw cannot be ruled out, considering the frequent draws in recent matches of both teams. Bari is seen as a clear underdog, as confirmed by both the odds and probabilities.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Monza had the following results: April 6 - Catanzaro vs Monza - 1-1, March 21 - Monza vs Venezia - 1-1, March 17 - Reggiana vs Monza - 0-0. During the same period, Bari's results were: April 6 - Bari vs Modena - 3-1, March 22 - Bari vs Carrarese - 0-3, March 18 - Frosinone vs Bari - 2-1. In their head-to-head match on August 31, 2025, Bari and Monza drew 1-1. On average over the last five games, Monza had 50.2% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 12.4 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per match. Bari averaged 44.6% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 7.6 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. These stats indicate Monza's more aggressive style and fewer fouls from Bari.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Monza had an average total of 2.6 goals, while Bari had 3.8. Monza scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 per game, Bari scores 1.6 and concedes 2.2. Monza had 2 out of 5 matches with over 2.5 goals, while Bari had 5 out of 5. In the first half, Monza had only 1 out of 5 with over 1.5 goals, Bari had 4 out of 5. In the second half, Monza had 2 out of 5 with over 1.5 goals, Bari had 4 out of 5. Monza most frequently scores in the intervals 16-30, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes (22% each), while Bari scores most in 46-60 (38%). Monza most frequently concedes in the interval 16-30 (50%), while Bari concedes most in the final minutes (76-90, 50%). These data confirm Bari's high attacking potential and Monza's consistent scoring, especially in the second half. Considering both teams have high average goal figures and Bari consistently plays over 2.5 goals, a logical choice would be a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.67.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Monza and Bari average 4.8 corners each over the last five matches. Monza had 2 out of 5 matches with over 9.5 corners, while Bari had 4 out of 5. Among the available corner totals, the closest to the sum of average values is 9.5. The total over 9.5 corners is at 2.06, under 9.5 is at 1.66. Monza is the favorite on corners with odds of 1.14. Considering both teams' average activity in deliveries and Bari's frequent over 9.5 total, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified. It is also worth noting that Monza records more fouls and yellow cards, which can lead to additional set-pieces and, therefore, an increase in the number of corners.