Prediction for match Moreirense — Gil Vicente

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

On February 7th, in the Primeira Liga, Moreirense will face Gil Vicente. The odds for a Gil Vicente win are 2.37, a draw is priced at 3.06, and a victory for Moreirense is at 3.53. The probability percentages are as follows: Gil Vicente has a 40.88% chance, a draw is at 31.67%, and Moreirense stands at 27.45%. Gil Vicente is viewed as the favorite, but the gap with Moreirense isn't overwhelming, and a draw is also considered quite likely. For total goals, Over 2.5 is at 2.58, while Under 2.5 is 1.56. Both teams to score: Yes is 2.05, No is 1.69. For individual team totals, Moreirense on Over 0.5 is 1.52, Gil Vicente on Over 1 is 1.76. Double chance 1X is 1.63. For first-half totals: Over 0.5 is 1.58, Under 1 is 1.51. For the second half, Over 1.5 is 2.59, Under 1.5 is 1.44. Overall, the line expects moderate scoring and doesn't rule out a draw.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Moreirense has an average possession of 56.6%, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 9.8 fouls, and records 1.8 offsides per game. Gil Vicente, in the same period, holds 48.4% possession, registers 2 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 2.4 offsides. In Moreirense's last three matches: January 30, 2026, Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense, January 24, 2026, Moreirense 1-0 Santa Clara, January 17, 2026, Alverca 2-1 Moreirense. For Gil Vicente: February 1, 2026, Gil Vicente 5-0 Famalicao, January 26, 2026, Porto 3-0 Gil Vicente, January 17, 2026, Gil Vicente 2-1 Nacional. In their head-to-head on August 29, 2025, Gil Vicente won 2-0 against Moreirense. Moreirense averages 3.6 corners over 5 games, while Gil Vicente averages 5.8. Both teams are close in yellow cards and fouls, but Gil Vicente tends to commit more fouls. Moreirense's higher possession could influence game control.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Moreirense's last five matches, Over 2.5 goals occurred once, Under 2.5 in four. For Gil Vicente, the opposite: 4 out of 5 went Over 2.5, 1 Under. In the first half, all 5 of Moreirense's games were Under 1.5, while Gil Vicente had 2 Over and 3 Under. In the second half, Moreirense recorded Over 1.5 in only 1 match, Gil Vicente in 2. The average total goals in Moreirense's last 5 games is 1.6, while Gil Vicente's is 3.4. Moreirense scores on average 1, concedes 0.6, Gil Vicente scores 2, concedes 1.4. By time intervals: Moreirense most frequently scores between 61-75 minutes (60%), Gil Vicente between 76-90 minutes (38%). Moreirense concedes more often in three intervals: 0-15, 46-60, and 61-75 (33% each), while Gil Vicente concedes most in the 31-45 interval (50%). Considering Moreirense's low scoring and under-profile in totals, and Gil Vicente's ability to score but often facing low-scoring teams, a bet on Under 2.5 at 1.56 seems logical. Moreirense hasn't exceeded 2 goals in recent matches, and Gil Vicente struggles to maximize their attacking potential against strong defenses away. Both teams tend to start cautiously, further reducing the likelihood of many goals. Supporting the under bet is the fact that only 1 of Moreirense's last 5 matches ended Over 2.5, whereas Gil Vicente had 4 out of 5, but against weaker defenses.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Moreirense averages 3.6 corners over 5 games, Gil Vicente 5.8. The frequency of Over 9.5 corners for Moreirense is 2 out of 5, for Gil Vicente 4 out of 5. The line for corner totals closest to the average sum (3.6 + 5.8 = 9.4) is 9.5: Over 9.5 is at 2.16, Under 9.5 is 1.62. For a win on corners, Gil Vicente is favored at 1.79. In recent matches, Gil Vicente consistently hits 5-6 corners, while Moreirense usually limits to 3-4. Given the frequency of Over 9.5, Gil Vicente looks more promising, especially considering their attacking style and tendency for flank plays. Moreirense might increase activity only if they need to come back, which isn't always the case. Overall, it's reasonable to consider a bet on Over 9.5 corners or a win for Gil Vicente on this metric.