Prediction for match Nacional — Casa Pia

Match Analysis: Nacional vs Casa Pia

In the Portuguese Primeira Liga, Nacional will face Casa Pia on February 8th. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: Nacional's victory is at 2.13, a draw is at 3.28, and Casa Pia's win is at 3.89. Looking at the probabilities, Nacional has a 45.52% chance, a draw is at 29.56%, and Casa Pia is at 24.92%. These figures highlight Nacional as the most likely winner, although a draw is also a considerable possibility. The gap in winning probabilities between the teams is quite noticeable, which is reflected in the odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Nacional has an average possession of 44%, with 2.8 yellow cards, 16.6 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Casa Pia, over the same period, shows 41.2% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 17.4 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Recent matches for Nacional: 01.02.2026 Sporting Lisbon - Nacional 2-1, 25.01.2026 Nacional - Rio Ave 4-0, 17.01.2026 Gil Vicente - Nacional 2-1. For Casa Pia: 02.02.2026 Casa Pia - Porto 2-1, 23.01.2026 Casa Pia - ABC 3-3, 16.01.2026 Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia 3-0. The last head-to-head on 30.08.2025 ended with Casa Pia - Nacional 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams have been showing high scoring potential: in Nacional's last five matches, the total over 2.5 goals came in 5 times, and for Casa Pia, it was 4 out of 5. The average goals in Nacional's matches is 3.8, while Casa Pia's is 3.2. Nacional scores an average of 2 goals per game and concedes 1.8, while Casa Pia scores 1.2 and concedes 2. By halves, Nacional had over 1.5 goals in the first half 2 times, and in the second half 4 out of 5 times. Casa Pia similarly had over 1.5 goals in the first half 2 times, and in the second half 2 times. Nacional most frequently scores between the 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (23% each), while Casa Pia scores most often between 31-45 minutes (27%). Both teams are most vulnerable to conceding in the final stages: Nacional concedes 50% of their goals between 76-90 minutes, and Casa Pia 60% in the same period. This suggests a high likelihood of a high-scoring match, where both teams could score, and the total goals might exceed 2.5. A bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.20 appears justified given the recent match statistics and average scoring of the teams.

Corner Totals Analysis

Nacional averages 3 corners per game, Casa Pia 2.8. In the last 5 matches, both teams had over 9.5 corners 4 times. The line for total corners offers: over 9.5 at 1.81, under 9.5 at 1.93. Based on the average sum of corners (5.8), a bet on over 9.5 corners seems risky, but the frequency in recent matches supports interest in this option. For the corners outcome, Nacional is favored with odds of 1.67. Overall, considering the trends of both teams in recent games, betting on over 9.5 corners could be considered.