Prediction for match Nacional — Rio Ave, 25.01.2026

Match Analysis: Nacional vs Rio Ave

In the Primeira Liga on January 25, Nacional will face Rio Ave. The odds for a Nacional win are 2.28, for a Rio Ave victory - 3.34, and a draw is priced at 3.41. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Nacional win - 42.53%, draw - 28.44%, Rio Ave win - 29.03%. Based on these figures, Nacional appears to be the favorite, but the gap is not significant, promising a fairly competitive encounter.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Nacional played as follows: January 17, 2026 - Gil Vicente vs Nacional - 2-1, January 11, 2026 - Nacional vs Santa Clara - 3-3, January 2, 2026 - Vitória Guimarães vs Nacional - 2-1. Rio Ave's last three results are: January 17, 2026 - Rio Ave vs Benfica - 0-2, January 4, 2026 - Rio Ave vs Casa Pia - 3-1, December 28, 2025 - Sporting Lisbon vs Rio Ave - 4-0. In their head-to-head on August 17, 2025, Rio Ave and Nacional drew 1-1. Additional stats over 5 matches show Nacional with 48.4% possession, an average of 2.6 yellow cards, 14.4 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Rio Ave has 43.6% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. These numbers indicate a high intensity and physicality in both teams' play.

Goal Scoring Patterns

Nacional stands out for its scoring: over a five-match series, the team's average total goals is 4, scoring 2 and conceding 2. Rio Ave's average total goals is 3, scoring 1 and conceding 2. In 5 out of 5 matches, Nacional had over 2.5 total goals, compared to 3 out of 5 for Rio Ave. By halves, Nacional had over 1.5 total goals in the first half 3 out of 5 times and 4 out of 5 in the second half, while Rio Ave had 2 out of 5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second. Nacional most frequently scores between the 31-45 and 76-90 minute marks (25% each), while Rio Ave scores most often between 46-60 minutes (33%). In terms of goals conceded, Nacional is vulnerable from 76-90 minutes (30%), whereas Rio Ave is from 16-30 and 31-45 minutes (33% each). This suggests a high likelihood of a goal-rich match, with both teams capable of scoring, but Nacional seems more potent offensively. Considering Nacional's consistent over 2.5 totals and Rio Ave's decent scoring support, betting on over 2.5 goals at 2.00 seems logical.

Corner Analysis

On corners, Nacional averages 3 per match, while Rio Ave averages 4. In a five-game series, both teams saw over 9.5 corners in 4 out of 5 matches. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to the sum of averages (3+4=7) is the over 9.5 line: over 9.5 is at 1.57, under 9.5 at 2.16. For corners, Nacional is favored with odds of 1.60. Given the frequent occurrence of over 9.5 totals and high flank activity, betting on over 9.5 corners seems reasonable for this match.