Prediction for match Nacional — Santa Clara

Odds and Probability Percentages for Match Outcome

In the Primeira Liga on January 11, Nacional will face Santa Clara. According to the 1X2 odds, Santa Clara's win is priced at 2.81, Nacional's at 2.87, and a draw at 3.06. The probabilities are almost evenly distributed: Nacional - 33.79%, draw - 31.69%, Santa Clara - 34.51%. This balance suggests that bookmakers do not see a clear favorite, and the match promises to be a hard-fought battle. Additional markets for totals and both teams to score also reflect caution in assessments: over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.58, both teams to score - yes at 2.02, no at 1.71.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Nacional has an average possession of 46%, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 13.8 fouls, and records 1.4 offsides per match. Santa Clara's possession is lower at 42.4%, with 3 yellow cards, 19.2 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. In their last three matches, Nacional played as follows: January 2 - Vitória Guimarães - Nacional 2-1, December 21 - ABC - Nacional 2-2, December 15 - Nacional - Tondela 3-1. Santa Clara's last three matches were: January 4 - Santa Clara - Porto 0-1, December 21 - Santa Clara - Arouca 0-0, December 18 - Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon 2-3. In their head-to-head on March 30, 2025, Santa Clara defeated Nacional 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of scoring, Nacional has an average total of 3 goals in their last five matches, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 per game. Santa Clara's average total is 1.6, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1. In terms of over 2.5 goals, Nacional has 4 out of 5, while Santa Clara has only 1 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred only once out of 5 for both teams, while in the second half, Nacional had 4 out of 5, and Santa Clara 1 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals, Nacional most often scores between 76-90 minutes (40%) and concedes in the same interval (50%). Santa Clara distributes its goals evenly across the first 45 minutes and the end, with 25% in each of the four intervals. Santa Clara's conceded goals are distributed between 0-15, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes, at 33% each. Considering Nacional's high scoring and Santa Clara's weak attack, as well as the frequent over 2.5 goals for Nacional and under-profile for Santa Clara, it makes sense to consider under 2.5 goals at 1.56 as the main prediction.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

For the average number of corners per match, Nacional has 2.4, and Santa Clara 3.2. Over their last five games, the total corners over 9.5 occurred 3 times for Nacional and 2 times for Santa Clara. The line offers a total corners of 9.5: over is priced at 2.03, under at 1.68. For the outcome on corners, Santa Clara is the favorite with odds of 1.89. Considering the average figures for both teams and not very high activity in corners, a bet on total corners under 9.5 seems reasonable, but the main focus in this match is still on the low total goals.