Prediction for match Nacional — Braga

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Primeira Liga on 28.02.2026, Nacional will face Braga. According to the 1X2 odds, Braga is the favorite with odds of 1.59 and a win probability of 60.98%. A draw is priced at 4.31 (22.50%), while a victory for Nacional is at 5.87 (16.52%). The odds reflect Braga's advantage, which is also supported by recent match statistics.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Nacional had an average possession of 48%, received 3 yellow cards, committed 14.8 fouls, and had 0.4 offsides per game. Braga shows more confidence in these aspects: 55.6% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last three matches, Nacional lost to Arouca 0-3 (21.02.2026), lost to Porto 0-1 (15.02.2026), and drew with Casa Pia 0-0 (08.02.2026). Braga defeated Vitória Guimarães 3-2 (21.02.2026), lost to Gil Vicente 1-2 (14.02.2026), and thrashed Rio Ave 3-0 (08.02.2026). The last head-to-head meeting was on 23.11.2025, where Braga beat Nacional 4-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Nacional's average total goals per match is 2.2, while Braga's is 3. In terms of goals per game, Nacional scores 1 and Braga scores 2.2, with Nacional conceding 1.2 and Braga 0.8. In the last 5 matches, Nacional had over 2.5 goals in 3 instances, and Braga in 4. For halves, Nacional had no over 1.5 goals in the first half, but in the second half, this occurred 3 times out of 5. Braga had over 1.5 goals in the first half 2 times, and in the second half, 4 times. In terms of scoring intervals, Nacional most often scores between 61-75 minutes (44%), while Braga scores between 61-75 and 76-90 minutes (25% each). Nacional concedes mainly between 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (50% each), while Braga concedes between 16-30 minutes (43%). Overall, the statistics suggest a high likelihood of a high-scoring match, especially in the second half, supported by the over 2.5 goals in both teams' recent games. The main prediction is over 2.5 goals at 1.80.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On average, Nacional earns 4.6 corners per game, and Braga earns 4.4, totaling 9. In a five-match series, Nacional had over 9.5 corners 4 times, and Braga 2 times. Among the corner total odds, the line of 9.5 stands out: over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.86, under 9.5 at 1.82. For the corner outcome, Braga is the favorite with odds of 1.39. Considering the average corner productivity and the frequency of over 9.5 corners for Nacional, betting on over 9.5 corners seems logical for this match.