Prediction for match Nacional Asuncion — Deportivo Recoleta

Match Analysis: Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta

In the Sudamericana tournament on March 5, 2026, Nacional Asuncion will face Deportivo Recoleta. The odds for a Nacional Asuncion win are 1.85, a draw is 3.25, and a Deportivo Recoleta victory is 4.44. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 50.36% for a Nacional Asuncion win, 28.66% for a draw, and 20.98% for a Deportivo Recoleta win. Based on these figures, Nacional Asuncion has the edge, but Deportivo Recoleta is not without hope and can put up a fight.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Nacional Asuncion drew 1-1 with Guarani (03/01/2026), 2-2 with Deportivo Recoleta (02/26/2026), and 1-1 with Sportivo Ameliano (02/19/2026). During the same period, Deportivo Recoleta lost 0-2 to Cerro Porteno (03/01/2026), drew 2-2 with Nacional Asuncion (02/26/2026), and defeated 2 de Mayo 1-0 (02/20/2026). In their head-to-head meeting on February 26, 2026, the teams finished 2-2. Over the last five matches, Nacional Asuncion has an average possession of 52.8%, 2.6 yellow cards, 12.2 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. Deportivo Recoleta has 46.6% possession, 2 yellow cards, 13.6 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. These stats indicate a slight advantage for Nacional Asuncion in ball control and better discipline for the opponent.

How Many Goals in Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta Match

Both teams show similar scoring activity: the average number of goals in matches for both teams over five games is 2.6. Nacional Asuncion scores an average of 1.4 and concedes 1.2, while Deportivo Recoleta scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4. In a series of five games, Nacional Asuncion has two matches over 2.5 total goals and three under, while Deportivo Recoleta has three over and two under. By halves, Nacional Asuncion had more than 1.5 goals in the first half twice and the same in the second half, while Deportivo Recoleta had one in the first half and three in the second. Nacional Asuncion most often scores in the 0-15 minute interval (40%) and concedes at the end (76-90 minutes, 38%). Deportivo Recoleta scores most frequently in three intervals: 0-15, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes (29% each), and concedes early (0-15 minutes, 33%) and after the break (46-60 minutes, 33%). Overall, both teams tend to score in the second half, and the average goal figures and frequency of over 2.5 totals suggest that betting on over 2.0 goals at 1.56 is an optimal choice. This outcome is supported by the balance of scoring from both sides and the absence of a pronounced low-scoring profile.

Corner Totals Analysis

For corners, Nacional Asuncion averages 3.2 over five matches, while Deportivo Recoleta averages 4.6. The frequency of over 9.5 corners hitting for both teams is the same: only 1 out of 5 matches reached this mark. Among the available totals, the line closest to the sum of the average values (3.2 + 4.6 = 7.8) is the 7.5-8.5 range. For a total of 8.5 corners, the odds are: over 8.5 at 1.90, under 8.5 at 1.80. In the corners market, Nacional Asuncion is favored with odds of 1.40. Based on average values, considering a bet on over 8.5 corners is logical, but the low frequency of this mark suggests a cautious approach is warranted.