Prediction for match Napoli — Milan

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

On December 18, 2025, the Italian Super Cup match between Napoli and Milan will take place. The odds for Milan's victory are 2.75, for Napoli's success - 2.96, and a draw is priced at 3.19. In terms of probability percentages, Milan stands at 35.83%, Napoli at 33.29%, and a draw at 30.89%. Based on the distribution of chances, the teams approach the game with fairly close odds, but Milan is highlighted as the favorite according to the odds and probability.

Teams' Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Napoli has an average ball possession of 55.6%, receives 1.4 yellow cards, commits 11.6 fouls, and is caught offside 1.6 times per game. Milan, on the same metrics, has 52.8% possession, 1.8 yellows, 10.8 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. Napoli's last three matches: 14.12 - Udinese - Napoli 1-0, 10.12 - Benfica - Napoli 2-0, 07.12 - Napoli - Juventus 2-1. Milan's recent games: 14.12 - Milan - Sassuolo 2-2, 08.12 - Torino - Milan 2-3, 04.12 - Lazio - Milan 1-0. In their head-to-head meeting on 28.09.2025, Milan defeated Napoli 2-1.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Napoli vs Milan Match

In the last five games, Napoli had a total over 2.5 only once, while under 2.5 occurred four times. Milan had over 2.5 goals twice and under three times. Napoli's average goals per match is 1.8, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1 per game. Milan's average total is 2.4, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1. By halves, Napoli never had a total over 1.5 in the first half, and only once in the second half out of five games. Milan had this figure twice in the first half and three times in the second half. Napoli most often scores between 16-30 minutes (33%) and concedes evenly across three intervals: 31-45, 46-60, and 61-75, each at 33%. Milan scores most frequently between 46-60 minutes (29%) and concedes most in the final stretch (76-90, 33%). Considering Napoli's low scoring and Milan's moderate profile, it's logical to consider under 2.5 goals at 1.69.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

In the last five matches, Napoli averages 5.2 corners, Milan - 3. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for Napoli is 0 out of 5, for Milan - 2 out of 5. Among the proposed corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (8.2) is 8.5: over 8.5 corners - 1.58, under 8.5 - 1.64. In terms of corners, Napoli is the favorite with odds of 1.82. Statistically, both teams are not inclined to a large number of corners, so betting on under 8.5 looks justified, but for risk-takers, the upper limit can also be considered.