Prediction for match Napoli — Chelsea

Odds and probability percentages for the match outcome

In the Champions League on January 28th, Napoli will face Chelsea. According to the 1X2 odds, Chelsea is the favorite: Chelsea's victory is valued at 2.35, Napoli's at 3.18, and a draw at 3.64. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Chelsea 41.94%, Napoli 30.99%, draw 27.07%. This setup reflects Chelsea's advantage in current form and performance, as confirmed by the statistics of the recent matches of both teams. An open game is expected in this matchup, considering Chelsea's attacking potential and Napoli's defensive instability.

Team results and statistics

In the last three matches, Napoli played as follows: January 25th Juventus - Napoli 3-0, January 20th Copenhagen - Napoli 1-1, January 17th Napoli - Sassuolo 1-0. Chelsea showed the following results in the same period: January 25th Crystal Palace - Chelsea 1-3, January 21st Chelsea - Pafos 1-0, January 17th Chelsea - Brentford 2-0. On average, Napoli holds 60% possession, Chelsea 61.2%. Napoli records 1.2 yellow cards and 11.6 fouls per match, Chelsea 2.4 yellows and 8.4 fouls. In terms of offsides, Napoli averages 1, Chelsea 1.2. In the last head-to-head meeting on March 14, 2012, Chelsea defeated Napoli 4-1.

How many goals to expect?

In the last 5 matches, Napoli had over 2.5 goals twice and under three times, while Chelsea had over 2.5 goals three times and under twice. On average, Napoli scores 0.8 and concedes 1.2, while Chelsea scores 2.6 and concedes 1. In total goals in matches, Napoli's average is 2, Chelsea's is 3.6. In the first half, Napoli had over 1.5 goals only once out of five, while Chelsea never did. In the second half, both teams exceeded 1.5 goals three times out of five. Napoli most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (38%), while Chelsea scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (57%). Napoli most frequently concedes in three different intervals: 16-30, 31-45, and 76-90 minutes (33% each). Chelsea most frequently concedes between the 46th-60th and 61st-75th minutes (27% each). Overall, the statistics indicate Chelsea's high scoring ability and suggest the likelihood of the total over 2.5, which is at 1.87. Meanwhile, Napoli does not excel in scoring, but their defense does not seem reliable against Chelsea's attacking force.

Corners: numbers and potential bets

On average, Napoli earns 5.2 corners per match, Chelsea 7. In total, this is 12.2 corners per game, which is quite high. In a series of five matches, Napoli exceeded a total of 9.5 corners only once, while Chelsea did so three times. Among the total corners, the line closest to the average is 11 corners: the total over 11 corners is at 3.10, under 11 at 1.32. For the outcome on corners, Napoli is the favorite with odds of 2.00. In this situation, it makes sense to consider the option for a total of over 9.5 or over 11 corners, given Chelsea's attacking style and Napoli's activity on flank deliveries.