Prediction for match Napoli — Lecce

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In Serie A on March 14, Napoli will face Lecce. According to the 1X2 odds, Napoli is the clear favorite: their victory is priced at 1.38, a draw at 4.96, and a win for Lecce at 11.20. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Napoli - 71.36%, draw - 19.85%, Lecce - 8.79%. This setup reflects the bookmakers' confidence in Napoli's strength, but the overall statistics of both teams also deserve attention when choosing a bet.

Recent Match Performances

In their last five matches, Napoli has averaged 56.4% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Lecce has averaged 39.6% possession, 0.8 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Napoli's last three matches: 06.03.2026 - Napoli vs Torino - 2:1, 28.02.2026 - Verona vs Napoli - 1:2, 22.02.2026 - Atalanta vs Napoli - 2:1. Lecce's last three matches: 08.03.2026 - Lecce vs Cremonese - 2:1, 28.02.2026 - Como vs Lecce - 3:1, 21.02.2026 - Lecce vs Inter - 0:2. In their head-to-head meeting on 28.10.2025, Lecce and Napoli played out a 0-1 result.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Napoli's last five matches, the total over 2.5 was successful 4 times, and under 2.5 once. For Lecce, over 2.5 occurred 3 times and under 2.5 twice. The average number of goals in Napoli's matches is 3, while for Lecce it's 2.8. In terms of goals scored: Napoli averages 1.6, Lecce 1.4. Both teams concede an average of 1.4 goals. In the first half, Napoli had over 1.5 goals once in 5 matches, Lecce 3 times in 5. In the second half, Napoli recorded over 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5, Lecce in 2 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals: Napoli most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minute (38%), Lecce between the 31st and 45th minute (43%). Napoli most often concedes in two intervals: 0-15 and 76-90 (both 29%), Lecce between 61-75 and 76-90 (both 29%). This profile of both teams, high average scoring, and regular occurrences of over 2.5 in recent matches suggest considering a bet on the over 2.5 as the main one.

Analysis of Total Corners

Napoli earns an average of 5 corners per match, Lecce 3.2. In their last 5 games, both teams had a total over 9.5 corners 2 times and under 3 times. Among the available totals for corners, the line closest to the sum of average values (8.2) is 8.5: the total corners over 8.5 is priced at 1.50, under 8.5 at 2.34. For the outcome on corners, Napoli is the favorite with odds of 1.17. In this situation, it makes sense to consider a bet on the total corners over 8.5, taking into account Napoli's attacking style and the average performance of both teams.