Prediction for match Newcastle — Benfica, 21.10.2025

Match Analysis: Newcastle vs Benfica

In the UEFA Champions League on October 21, 2025, Newcastle will host Benfica. According to the 1X2 odds, Newcastle is favored with odds of 1.60, giving them a 59.19% chance of victory. A draw is priced at 4.33 (21.87%), and Benfica is the underdog with odds of 5.00 and an 18.94% chance of winning. Newcastle is expected to have the upper hand in this matchup, as indicated by both the odds and the percentage distribution.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Newcastle has been prolific, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, with a total average of 3.4 goals. The team also averages 6 corners, 0.8 yellow cards, and 9.2 fouls, with 55.4% possession. In this series, Newcastle defeated Nottingham Forest 2-0 (October 5, 2025) and Bradford City 4-1 (September 24, 2025), lost to Brighton 1-2 (October 18, 2025) and Arsenal 1-2 (September 28, 2025), and thrashed Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 (October 1, 2025). Benfica, in their last five matches, averages 1 goal scored, 0.6 conceded, with a total average of 1.6 goals, 4.6 corners, 2.8 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 54.2% possession. They have a win against Chaves 2-0 (October 17, 2025), a draw with Rio Ave 1-1 (September 23, 2025), and a narrow loss to Chelsea 0-1 (September 30, 2025). In their head-to-head match on July 26, 2022, Benfica defeated Newcastle 3-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last 5 matches, Newcastle has seen over 2.5 goals 4 times, while Benfica only once, with Benfica having 4 out of 5 under 2.5. Newcastle's average total goals is 3.4, while Benfica's is 1.6. In the first half, Newcastle exceeded 1.5 goals twice, Benfica only once, and in the second half, Newcastle did so 4 out of 5 times, Benfica 1 out of 5. Newcastle most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (33%), while Benfica scores between the 16th and 30th minutes (75%). Newcastle also concedes late (76-90 minutes - 67%), while Benfica concedes 50% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and the final stage of the match. Therefore, Newcastle's high average total and frequent over 2.5 outcomes make a bet on over 2.5 goals justified.

Corners Statistics

Newcastle averages 6 corners per match, while Benfica averages 4.6. In the last 5 games, Newcastle had over 9.5 total corners 3 times, while Benfica only once. The odds for total corners offer: over 9.5 - 1.73, under 9.5 - 2.00. Additionally, Newcastle is favored in corners with odds of 1.40.