Prediction for match Newcastle — Leeds, 07.01.2026

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

In the Premier League clash between Newcastle and Leeds on January 7, 2026, bookmakers have marked Newcastle as the favorite. Newcastle's win is priced at 1.74, a draw at 3.98, and a Leeds victory at 5.28. In terms of probabilities, Newcastle has a 56.60% chance, a draw stands at 24.75%, and Leeds has an 18.65% chance. This setup highlights Newcastle's advantage in odds and percentages, reflecting their stability in recent matches and higher scoring metrics.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Newcastle has shown strong secondary statistics: 57% possession, an average of 1.6 yellow cards, 6.6 fouls, and 2.6 offsides. During the same period, Leeds has 45.8% possession, 0.6 yellow cards, 8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Newcastle's recent three matches: January 4 - Newcastle vs Crystal Palace 2-0, December 30 - Burnley vs Newcastle 1-3, December 26 - Manchester United vs Newcastle 1-0. Leeds' recent matches: January 4 - Leeds vs Manchester United 1-1, January 1 - Liverpool vs Leeds 0-0, December 28 - Sunderland vs Leeds 1-1. The last head-to-head meeting on August 30, 2025, ended in a goalless draw.

Totals Statistics

Newcastle seems more promising in terms of scoring: in their last 5 games, the team has an average total of 2.8 goals per match, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1. Leeds shows an average total of 2.2, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8. Newcastle surpassed the over 2.5 total in 3 out of 5, while Leeds did so in 1 out of 5. In the first half, Newcastle achieved over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5, Leeds in 1 out of 5. In the second half, Newcastle had 2 out of 5 for over 1.5, Leeds 3 out of 5. Newcastle most frequently scores between the 16th and 30th minute (38%), while Leeds scores between the 31st-45th and 61st-75th minutes (29% each). Newcastle concedes most often in the first 15 minutes (33%), Leeds in the 76th-90th minutes (50%). Considering Newcastle's consistent scoring and Leeds' ability to keep up the pace in the second half, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.88 seems justified.

Corners: Figures and Potential Bets

Newcastle averages 6.8 corners, Leeds 6, over their last 5 matches. The over 9.5 corners total was hit by both teams 4 times out of 5. Among the corner odds, the total of 12 (6.8+6=12.8) is closest to the average values. For the 10.5 corners total, there are two outcomes: over 10.5 is priced at 2.10, under 10.5 at 1.68. Newcastle is the favorite in the corners market with odds of 1.46. Given the high activity of both teams on corners, considering an over 10.5 total or Newcastle's advantage in this aspect makes sense.