Prediction for match Newcastle — Manchester United

Odds and probabilities of match outcomes

In the Premier League on March 4th, Newcastle will face Manchester United. The odds for Newcastle to win are 2.60, for a draw - 3.86, and for Manchester United to succeed - 2.69. The estimated probabilities are: Newcastle - 37.88%, draw - 25.51%, Manchester United - 36.61%. The odds for both teams to win are close, indicating no clear favorite in this match-up. Interestingly, the gap between the chances of winning is minimal, and bookmakers do not highlight one side as the clear leader. A competitive match is expected, where the outcome might be decided by the finer details.

Team results and statistics

In their last three matches, Newcastle played as follows: 28.02.2026 - Newcastle vs Everton - 2-3, 24.02.2026 - Newcastle vs Qarabag - 3-2, 21.02.2026 - Manchester City vs Newcastle - 2-1. Manchester United's recent results are: 01.03.2026 - Manchester United vs Crystal Palace - 2-1, 23.02.2026 - Everton vs Manchester United - 0-1, 10.02.2026 - West Ham vs Manchester United - 1-1. In their last head-to-head meeting on 26.12.2025, Manchester United defeated Newcastle 1-0. Over a five-match span, Newcastle averages 58.4% possession, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 11.6 fouls, and records 1.8 offsides per game. Manchester United holds 57% possession, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 8.4 fouls, and records 1.6 offsides. These stats show that both teams are good at controlling possession and are not prone to overly aggressive play, while also rarely getting caught offside.

How many goals to expect?

Offensively, Newcastle is showing very high scoring ability: in their last 5 matches, the team scored an average of 3 goals, with an overall average total of 4.8 goals in their games. All 5 of Newcastle's matches in this series went over 2.5 goals. Manchester United scores an average of 1.8 goals per game and concedes 0.8, with an overall average total of 2.6 goals in their matches. For Manchester United, 2 out of their last 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals, and 3 under. Newcastle is active in both halves: 4 out of 5 matches saw over 1.5 goals in both the first and second halves. For Manchester United, none of the first halves had over 1.5 goals, while 3 out of 5 second halves did. Newcastle most frequently scores in the first 15 minutes (44%), while Manchester United scores from the 46th to the 60th minute (38%). Newcastle most often concedes between the 31st and 45th minutes (25%), while Manchester United concedes late, from the 76th to the 90th minute (60%). Given Newcastle's high scoring rate, regular over 2.5 goal matches, and strong second-half performances, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.50 seems logical for this match.

Corners: numbers and potential bets

In terms of average corners over the last 5 matches, Newcastle delivers 6.4, while Manchester United delivers 4.2. In 4 out of 5 of Newcastle's games, the total corners exceeded 9.5, whereas for Manchester United, it was 2 out of 5. Among the available corner totals, there's a line at 9.5: over 9.5 corners - 1.52, under 9.5 - 2.37. Newcastle is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.62. With these figures, it's reasonable to expect active corner-taking, especially from Newcastle, and betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified. It's also worth noting that Newcastle consistently delivers more than 6 corners per match, and Manchester United slightly over 4, which together gives a high potential for surpassing the corner line.