Prediction for match Newcastle — Sunderland

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

The Premier League clash between Newcastle and Sunderland on March 22, 2026, is drawing attention not only for the rivalry but also due to the betting odds. Newcastle's victory is priced at 1.74, a draw at 4.12, and Sunderland's win at 5.08. In terms of probability, Newcastle has a 56.66% chance, a draw stands at 23.93%, and Sunderland at 19.41%. Newcastle is seen as the favorite, but the odds on totals and individual performances also deserve attention. With these figures in mind, Newcastle is expected to control the game, while Sunderland will likely play defensively and capitalize on their chances.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Newcastle has an average possession of 39.6%, with 2.6 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, and 2 offsides. Sunderland, over the same period, records 47.4% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 10.8 fouls, and 2.6 offsides. In their last three games, Newcastle played as follows: March 18, 2026, Barcelona vs Newcastle 7-2, March 14, 2026, Chelsea vs Newcastle 0-1, March 10, 2026, Newcastle vs Barcelona 1-1. Sunderland's last three matches: March 14, 2026, Sunderland vs Brighton 0-1, March 8, 2026, Port Vale vs Sunderland 1-0, March 3, 2026, Leeds vs Sunderland 0-1. The last head-to-head meeting was on December 14, 2025: Sunderland vs Newcastle 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Newcastle has gone over 2.5 goals three times and under twice. Sunderland has only exceeded 2.5 goals once, with four unders. The average number of goals in Newcastle's matches is 3.8, while Sunderland's is 1.8. Newcastle scores an average of 1.4, while Sunderland scores 0.6. Newcastle concedes 2.4, Sunderland 1.2. By halves, Newcastle has gone over 1.5 in the first half three times in five games, while Sunderland has always been under. In the second half, Newcastle has gone over 1.5 three times, while Sunderland only once. Newcastle most frequently scores between 16-30, 31-45, 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (18% each), while Sunderland scores between 16-30, 61-75, and 76-90 (33% each). Newcastle concedes most often between 16-30 and 31-45 (25% each), Sunderland between 46-60 and 61-75 (33% each). Given these insights, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 2.01 seems justified: Sunderland has a weak attack, and Newcastle might play pragmatically after a series of high-scoring matches.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Newcastle averages 3.4 corners per game, Sunderland 5.4. In the last five matches, Newcastle has gone over 9.5 corners twice, while Sunderland has done so five times. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.55, under 9.5 at 2.29. Newcastle is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.31. Considering Sunderland's activity in deliveries and Newcastle's consistent performance, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical. Also, betting on Newcastle to win the corner count is worth considering given their status as favorites in this aspect.