Prediction for match Nice — Marseille, 21.11.2025

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In Ligue 1, Nice will face Marseille. In the 1X2 market, Marseille is the favorite with odds of 2.01 for their victory. A win for Nice is priced at 3.81, while a draw is at 3.90. The probability distribution is as follows: Marseille - 48.95%, Nice - 25.82%, draw - 25.23%. This indicates Marseille's advantage going into the match, but Nice still has a decent chance for a positive result. Interestingly, the difference in win probabilities between Marseille and Nice exceeds 23 percentage points, which is quite significant for such a match.

Team Statistics and Scores

Looking at the statistics over the last five matches, Nice has an average ball possession of 41.2%, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 13.2 fouls, and registers 1 offside per game. Marseille has 59% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Nice lost to Metz 1-2 (11/09/2025), fell to Freiburg 1-3 (11/06/2025), and were defeated by PSG 0-1 (11/01/2025). During the same period, Marseille beat Brest 3-0 (11/08/2025), lost to Atalanta 0-1 (11/05/2025), and won against Auxerre 1-0 (11/01/2025). The last head-to-head encounter between these teams took place on 01/26/2025 and ended with a 2-0 victory for Nice, with a total of less than 2.5 goals.

Goals Based on Match Statistics

In their last five matches, both teams played over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games, and over 1.5 goals in the first half in 2 out of 5 games, and over 1.5 goals in the second half in 1 out of 5 games. Nice's average goals per game is 2.6, while Marseille's is 2.4. Nice most frequently scores in the 76-90 minute interval (43%), whereas Marseille scores most often between 16-30 and 46-60 minutes (29% each). In terms of goals conceded, Nice has the highest percentage between the 31-45 minute mark (83%), and Marseille between 16-30 minutes (50%). Both teams have comparable metrics in terms of chance conversion, and the over 2.5 total was recorded in 3 out of their last 5 matches. Based on average scoring and total frequency, betting on both teams to score: yes, seems the most logical choice.

Betting on Corners

When it comes to corners, Marseille significantly outperforms their opponent: over the last five matches, they average 4.8 corners per game, while Nice averages 2.8. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for Nice is 3 out of 5, while for Marseille it's only 1 out of 5. The line for total corners over 8.5 is at 1.51, under 8.5 is at 2.32. Marseille is the favorite in the corners market with odds of 1.64. A logical bet would be on Marseille to win on corners or total over 8.5, considering the difference in corners taken and the total frequency.