Prediction for match Pachuca — Leon

Match Analysis: Pachuca vs. Leon

Pachuca and Leon will face off in Liga MX on January 14. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: a Pachuca win is priced at 1.59, a draw at 4.05, and a Leon victory at 5.08. The probability distribution is as follows: Pachuca - 58.63%, draw - 23.02%, Leon - 18.35%. Pachuca is considered the favorite, but the percentage difference is not overwhelming. For goal totals, the odds for Over 2.5 goals are 1.62, and Under 2.5 goals are 2.23, indicating a slight lean towards a high-scoring game, but not decisively so. Both teams to score: Yes is at 1.64, No at 2.13. For individual totals, Pachuca Over 1.5 goals is at 1.57, and Leon Over 1 goal is at 2.16. Overall, the line expects a moderate number of goals with an advantage for Pachuca.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Pachuca lost to Guadalajara 0-2 (10.01.2026), lost to Juarez 1-2 (24.11.2025), and defeated UNAM Pumas 3-1 (21.11.2025). Leon, in their last three outings, beat Cruz Azul 2-1 (11.01.2026), lost to Puebla 1-2 (09.11.2025), and lost to Club America 0-2 (02.11.2025). In their head-to-head on August 23, 2025, the teams drew 1-1. Over a five-match span, Pachuca has 51.2% possession, averages 1 yellow card, 12.4 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Leon has higher possession at 52.8%, averages 2.2 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. These stats indicate both teams try to control the ball, but Leon receives more warnings. Pachuca has noticeably more offsides, while Leon has more cards in the five-match series. Overall, neither team is excessively aggressive, but Pachuca is more often caught offside.

Totals Statistics

In their last five matches, both teams have played Over 2.5 goals twice and Under three times. In the first half, Pachuca has seen Over 1.5 goals three times, while Leon only once. Conversely, in the second half, Leon has hit Over 1.5 goals three times, while Pachuca only once. On average over five games, Pachuca scores 2.2 goals per match, Leon 2.4. Both teams have the same average goals scored - 0.8, but Leon concedes slightly more - 1.6 compared to Pachuca's 1.4. Regarding scoring intervals: Pachuca most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minute (50%), Leon between the 46th and 60th minute (38%). For goals conceded: Pachuca most often concedes between the 61st and 75th minute (67%), Leon between the 76th and 90th minute (40%). In this five-match series, neither team shows high scoring prowess: only two Over 2.5 matches each, average goals do not exceed 2.4, and both score 0.8 per game. With Pachuca being slightly more active in the first half and Leon in the second, this suggests a moderately low-scoring profile, making a bet on Under 3.25 goals at 1.54 logical: neither team often plays high-scoring games, and their average goals don't suggest a clear over.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Over their last five matches, Pachuca averages 3.6 corners, Leon 4.6. For Over 9.5 corners, Pachuca has 2 out of 5, Leon 3 out of 5. Combining their averages, they total 8.2 corners per match. Among the odds for total corners, there's a line at 9.5: Over 9.5 is at 1.66, Under 9.5 at 2.01. For the outcome on corners, Pachuca is the favorite with odds of 1.32. Based on the statistics, a bet on Over 9.5 corners seems justified, as both teams often approach this mark. Leon tends to have slightly higher corner counts, while Pachuca's figures are slightly lower, but not significantly. Overall, 8-10 corners are expected per match, making a bet on the over for corners sensible.