Prediction for match Padova — Spezia

Match Analysis: Padova vs Spezia

On March 3rd, in Serie B, Padova will face Spezia. The 1X2 odds are set as follows: a win for Padova is at 2.93, a draw at 2.75, and a win for Spezia at 2.72. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Padova 31.82%, draw 33.90%, Spezia 34.28%. The odds and percentages indicate that the bookmakers do not see a clear favorite, with the chances for any outcome being quite balanced. As for the totals: over 2.5 goals is at 2.33, under 2.5 goals at 1.58, both teams to score: yes at 1.90, no at 1.80. This suggests a fairly cautious match in terms of goals, but not entirely low-scoring.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Padova has shown average figures: possession 46.8%, yellow cards 2.2, fouls 15.8, offsides 1.2. Over the same period, Spezia has 54.8% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 13.2 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. In their last three games, Padova played as follows: February 28, 2026 - Modena vs Padova 1-2, February 21, 2026 - Padova vs Bari 1-1, February 14, 2026 - Sampdoria vs Padova 1-0. For Spezia: February 28, 2026 - Spezia vs Reggiana 0-1, February 21, 2026 - Cesena vs Spezia 2-3, February 15, 2026 - Spezia vs Frosinone 0-2. The last head-to-head match was on October 29, 2025: Spezia vs Padova 1-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Padova averages 2.6 goals per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2. Spezia averages 2.0 goals, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2. For over 2.5 goals: Padova has 2 out of 5, Spezia 1 out of 5. For over 1.5 goals: Padova's average total is higher than their opponent's, and both teams have 2 out of 5 for over 1.5 in the first half and 1 out of 5 in the second. Padova most frequently scores in the 16-30 and 46-60 minute intervals (29%), while Spezia scores in three intervals: 0-15, 16-30, and 46-60 (33%). Padova is most vulnerable to conceding early (0-15 - 33%) and late (76-90 - 33%), while Spezia is vulnerable in the middle of the first and second halves (16-30, 31-45, 61-75 - 29%). Overall, Padova has a more pronounced attacking profile, whereas Spezia scores little, as confirmed by their average goal count. Considering Spezia's low scoring and the not-so-high totals for both, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.58 seems logical. Supporting this option are only 3 over 2.5 goals in the last 10 matches combined, as well as Spezia's average scoring figures.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Padova averages 3.8 corners per game, Spezia 5. For total over 9.5 corners: Padova has 2 out of 5, Spezia 3 out of 5. The closest sum of averages is 9.0, but the line offers a pair at 9.5: total corners over 9.5 at 2.10, under 9.5 at 1.68. No clear favorite emerges from corner outcomes. On average, the match between these teams could be moderately active in terms of corners, but there's no clear bias towards either team. It's reasonable to consider a total corners bet around 9-10, but without a clear lean towards over or under. Additionally, both teams rarely exceed 10 corners, so a cautious bet on under 9.5 seems justified.