Prediction for match Palmeiras — Gremio

Odds and Probabilities for Match Outcome

In Brazil's Serie A on April 3, Palmeiras will face Gremio. According to the odds, Palmeiras is the favorite: their victory is priced at 1.54 with a probability of 62.21%. A draw is valued at 4.38 (21.87%), and a Gremio win is at 6.02 with a probability of 15.91%. These figures reflect Palmeiras' advantage based on current form and statistics. Bookmakers' choice is based on the team's consistent results and confident play in recent matches. Gremio is considered the underdog, but one should not discount the possibility of a tough contest, given their past head-to-head encounters.

Team Results and Statistics

Palmeiras has shown solid results in their last five matches: on March 22, they defeated Sao Paulo 1-0, on March 18, Palmeiras beat Botafogo 2-1, and on March 15, they triumphed over Mirassol 1-0. During the same period, Gremio played against Vasco da Gama on March 22 (1-2), won against Vitoria 2-0 on March 19, and drew with Chapecoense 1-1 on March 16. In their last head-to-head meeting on November 26, 2025, Gremio was stronger than Palmeiras with a score of 3-2. Additional statistics over 5 matches: Palmeiras maintains ball possession at 45.4%, averages 2 yellow cards, 13.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Gremio holds the ball for an average of 54.8% of the time, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 11.2 fouls, and registers 1.4 offsides. These numbers indicate that Gremio prefers more ball control, while Palmeiras plays more pragmatically.

Goal Statistics

In terms of scoring, both teams show similar figures. In the last five matches, Palmeiras averages 2.2 goals per match, while Gremio averages 2.4. Palmeiras scores 1.4 and concedes 0.8, while Gremio also scores 1.4 but concedes slightly more at 1 goal per game. For the over 2.5 total goals: Palmeiras had 3 out of 5 matches end with three or more goals, while Gremio had 2 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 total goals occurred once for Palmeiras and twice for Gremio, in the second half - twice for Palmeiras and once for Gremio. For goal intervals: Palmeiras most often scores between 16-30 and 61-75 minutes (33% each), and concedes in the first 15 minutes (40%). Gremio's most productive periods are 0-15, 16-30, and 46-60 minutes (25% each), and they most often concede between 31-45 minutes (50%). Overall, both teams can maintain the pace, but there is no clear bias towards over 2.5 total goals, although Palmeiras tends to play more effectively. Considering this data, a bet on under 2.5 total goals at 1.99 seems logical: both teams' average goal numbers do not exceed 2.4, and the over 2.5 goals is not dominant. In the last five matches, Palmeiras won 1-0 twice, and Gremio had three matches end with two or fewer goals.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On average corners over 5 matches: Palmeiras earns 2.8, Gremio - 4.2. In a series of five games, the total corners over 9.5 occurred 2 times for Palmeiras and 1 time for Gremio. Adding the averages, we get 7 corners in total. The closest total with a pair of odds is 9.5: total corners over 9.5 is at 1.73, under 9.5 is at 1.99. For the outcome on corners, Palmeiras is the favorite with odds of 1.37. Based on the statistics, it makes sense to consider a bet on under 9.5 total corners, as both teams rarely exceed this threshold. It is also worth noting that Palmeiras earns fewer corners than Gremio, which may affect the dynamics of this metric. Overall, the match does not promise a large number of set pieces, and a bet on a low total corners seems justified.