Prediction for match PSG — Metz, 21.02.2026

Match Analysis: PSG vs Metz

In Ligue 1 on February 21, 2026, PSG will face Metz. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: PSG win at 1.15, draw at 11.20, and Metz win at 17.50. The probabilities are distributed as follows: PSG - 85.59%, draw - 8.79%, Metz - 5.62%. The clear advantage in odds and percentages is on PSG's side, reflecting the difference in class between the teams at this stage of the season.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, PSG has shown the following results: 17.02.2026 Monaco - PSG 2-3, 13.02.2026 Rennes - PSG 3-1, 08.02.2026 PSG - Marseille 5-0. During the same period, Metz played as follows: 15.02.2026 Metz - Auxerre 1-3, 06.02.2026 Metz - Lille 0-0, 01.02.2026 Angers - Metz 1-0. On average over 5 matches, PSG had 68% possession, committed 7.6 fouls, 1.4 offsides, and received 0.4 yellow cards. Metz, in a similar series, had 48.4% possession, 11.6 fouls, 1.8 offsides, and 1.8 yellow cards. In the last head-to-head meeting on 13.12.2025, Metz lost to PSG 2-3.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, PSG has an average total of 3.8 goals, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.4 per game. Metz has an average total of 3, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2. In PSG's last five matches, the total over 2.5 occurred 4 times, and for Metz, it happened 3 times. In the first half, PSG had 4 out of 5 games with a total over 1.5, and Metz had 2 out of 5. In the second half, both teams recorded 2 out of 5 for over 1.5. In terms of scoring intervals, PSG most frequently scores in the first 15 minutes (29%) and between 61-75 minutes (29%). Metz most often scores between 31 and 45 minutes (33%) and concedes at the end - from 76 to 90 minutes (33%). PSG concedes most often from 16 to 30 minutes (38%). Given PSG's scoring ability and Metz's high conceding rate, betting on PSG's individual total over 2.5 at 1.53 seems like the optimal choice.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

PSG averages 6.4 corners per match, Metz - 3. In the last five matches, PSG's total corners over 9.5 was recorded 2 times, and for Metz, it was 1 time. The line for total corners closest to the average sum is 9.5: total corners over 9.5 - 1.55, under 9.5 - 2.23. The outcome for corners is PSG at 1.01. Considering PSG's average activity in corner delivery and the not very high frequency of over 9.5, betting on total corners over 9.5 seems justified, but a moderate number of corners is also possible.