Prediction for match PSG — Newcastle

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Champions League match between PSG and Newcastle on January 28, the bookmakers favor the French club. PSG's win is priced at 1.64, a draw at 4.78, and a Newcastle victory at 5.13. The probabilities are distributed as follows: PSG - 60.14%, draw - 20.63%, Newcastle - 19.23%. These figures reflect confidence in PSG's strength, but Newcastle shouldn't be completely discounted, considering their recent performances. Expectations for the match outcome are based on both teams' recent results and statistics over the past weeks.

Team Results and Statistics

Over the last 5 games, PSG has shown a high ball possession rate of 65.8, with an average of 6.4 corners, 0.8 yellow cards, 10.6 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per match. Newcastle, over the same period, has shown 57 percent possession, 5.6 corners, 2 yellow cards, 7.2 fouls, and 2.6 offsides. In their last three matches, PSG defeated Auxerre 1-0, lost to Sporting Lisbon 1-2, and beat Lille 3-0. Newcastle lost to Aston Villa 0-2, confidently won against PSV 3-0, and drew 0-0 with Wolverhampton. In their head-to-head on November 28, 2023, the teams drew 1-1, and in October of the same year, Newcastle was stronger with a 4-1 victory.

Goals Based on Match Statistics

In a five-match series, PSG has an average total of 2.4 goals, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1 goal per game. Newcastle has a total average of 2.6, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4. Regarding over 2.5 goals: PSG achieved this 3 times out of 5, Newcastle 2 out of 5. In the first half, PSG had no over 1.5 goals, while Newcastle had 1 out of 5. In the second half, PSG recorded over 1.5 goals three times, Newcastle twice. In terms of timing, PSG most frequently scores and concedes between the 76th and 90th minutes (43% and 80% respectively), while Newcastle's goals are evenly distributed across four intervals, with most goals conceded between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (33% each). Overall, both teams are capable of maintaining scoring, especially in the second half, as evidenced by their over 2.5 goals stats and average goal totals. In this context, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.48 seems justified, but for the main prediction, the "Both Teams to Score: Yes" at 1.62 is preferred - both teams regularly score, and their defenses are not flawless.

Analysis of Corner Totals

PSG averages 6.4 corners per match, Newcastle 5.6. Over the last 5 matches, PSG exceeded 9.5 corners twice, Newcastle four times. Among corner totals, the line closest to the sum of average values (12) is 11, with both sides available: over 11 corners at 2.41, under 11 at 1.50. For corners, PSG is favored at odds of 1.36. An active game on the wings and a high number of set-pieces, especially from PSG, can be expected. Considering the attacking style of both teams and their recent match stats, a bet on over 11 corners is logical.