Prediction for match Parma — Napoli

Odds and probability percentages for the match outcome

On April 12, 2026, Parma will face Napoli in a Serie A match. The odds for a Napoli win are 1.66, a draw is at 4.01, and a Parma victory is valued at 6.14. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Parma 16.05%, draw 24.58%, Napoli 59.37%. According to the bookmakers, Napoli stands out as the clear favorite for this encounter, while Parma is seen as the underdog. A draw is not ruled out, but its probability is lower than a Napoli win.

Team results and statistics

In their last five matches, Parma averaged 48.4% possession, recorded 2 yellow cards, 13.8 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per game. Napoli, over the same period, showed 64% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 10.8 fouls, and 2 offsides. In Parma's last three matches: April 4, 2026, Lazio - Parma 1-1, March 21, 2026, Parma - Cremonese 0-2, March 13, 2026, Torino - Parma 4-1. For Napoli: April 6, 2026, Napoli - Milan 1-0, March 20, 2026, Cagliari - Napoli 0-1, March 14, 2026, Napoli - Lecce 2-1. In their head-to-head on January 14, 2026, Napoli and Parma played to a 0-0 draw.

How many goals will be in the Parma - Napoli match

In the last five matches, only 1 out of 5 games for Parma ended with a total over 2.5, while Napoli had 3 out of 5. Parma's average goals scored during this period - 0.6, Napoli - 1.6. Goals conceded: Parma - 1.6, Napoli - 0.6. On average, both teams are involved in matches with 2.2 goals. By halves: Parma had only 1 out of 5 games with a total over 1.5 in the first half, and 3 out of 5 in the second half. Napoli had no matches with a total over 1.5 in the first half, but 3 out of 5 in the second half. By intervals: Parma most often scores between 76-90 minutes (50%) and concedes most frequently between 61-75 minutes (40%). Napoli's most frequent goals come between 61-75 minutes (50%), and they concede most often between 0-15 minutes (60%). Considering Parma's low scoring rate and Napoli's strong defense, a bet on Both Teams to Score: No at 1.63 seems logical.

Corner totals analysis

Parma averages 3.8 corners per match, Napoli - 6.8. In the last five matches, Parma had no games with a total of corners over 9.5, while Napoli had 2 out of 5. If we consider the total corners, the line closest to the sum of the averages (10.6) is 10.5. Both options are available for it: total corners over 10.5 - 2.82, under 10.5 - 1.38. For the corner outcome, Napoli is favored at 1.52. It's expected that Napoli will be more active at the opponent's goal, and Parma's average figures fall short of the opponent's statistics. A bet on total corners over 10.5 seems justified in this scenario.