Prediction for match Pau — Bastia

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

On March 6, 2026, in France's Ligue 2, Pau will face Bastia. The odds for Pau to win are 2.07, a draw is at 3.32, and a Bastia victory is priced at 3.54. Looking at the probability distribution, Pau has a 45.28% chance of winning, a draw is at 28.23%, and Bastia has a 26.48% chance. Based on this data, Pau is the favorite, but the gap isn't very large, and a draw is also seen as a possible outcome.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Pau lost to Saint-Étienne 0-3, fell to Troyes 3-4, and were defeated by Boulogne 1-2. Bastia, in their last three games, lost to Annecy 0-2, drew with Dunkerque 1-1, and had a goalless draw with Troyes. On average over five games, Pau has 48.2% possession, receives 2 yellow cards, commits 13.6 fouls, and is caught offside 1.8 times. Bastia has 48.8% possession, also 2 yellow cards, 12.2 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last head-to-head meeting on August 15, 2025, the teams drew 1-1.

Goals According to Match Statistics

Pau has been playing high-scoring football in their last five matches, with an average total of 3.4 goals, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 per game. Bastia's numbers are much lower: an average of 0.8 goals per match, scoring just 0.2 and conceding 0.6. For over 2.5 goals: 4 of Pau's 5 matches ended with three or more goals, while all 5 of Bastia's matches were under. In the first half, Pau exceeded 1.5 goals only once in five games, Bastia twice. In the second half, Pau had more than 1.5 goals 4 times out of 5, Bastia never. By time intervals, Pau scores more often between the 76th and 90th minutes (60%), while Bastia scores between the 16th and 45th minutes (50% in two intervals). Bastia concedes more in the first 45 minutes (33% in three intervals), Pau between the 61st and 75th minutes (33%). Considering Pau's high scoring, regular over 2.5 hits, and Bastia's low scoring, a bet on over 2.0 goals at 1.60 seems logical: Pau can score at least twice, and Bastia might find the net once.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Over five matches, Pau averages 3 corners, Bastia 4.6. For over 9.5 corners: only 1 of Pau's 5 matches went over, and none for Bastia. Looking at the odds, over 9.5 corners is at 1.98, under 9.5 at 1.72. Pau is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.51. Given the averages, it makes more sense to consider a bet on under 9.5 corners, as both teams rarely exceed this threshold. Also, individual numbers suggest: Pau usually delivers fewer than 4 corners, and Bastia around 5. Overall, the match doesn't promise a high number of set pieces from the corner flag.