Prediction for match Portsmouth — Derby County

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Championship clash between Portsmouth and Derby County on March 16, bookmakers have Portsmouth as the favorites. Portsmouth's victory is priced at 2.21, a draw at 3.20, and Derby County's win at 3.30. The odds reflect the following probabilities: 42.37% for a Portsmouth win, 29.26% for a draw, and 28.37% for a Derby County victory. This setup indicates a slight advantage for Portsmouth, but the gap between the teams is not too wide, promising a competitive battle. The betting line also offers options for totals and both teams to score, but the main focus is on the match outcome, considering the close probabilities and odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Portsmouth lost 1-2 to Swansea City on March 10, drew 1-1 with Blackburn Rovers on March 7, and lost 0-1 to Hull City on February 28. During the same period, Derby County defeated Sheffield Wednesday 2-1, lost 0-1 to Millwall, and won 3-1 against Blackburn Rovers. On average, over the last five games, Portsmouth had 58% possession, recorded 0.8 yellow cards, committed 8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Derby County showed 51.4% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 1 offside. In their last head-to-head on December 20, the teams drew 1-1, highlighting a certain balance of power between the opponents. These stats reflect the playing styles and could influence the nature of the upcoming match.

Goals Statistics

In the last five games, Portsmouth averaged 2.6 goals per match, while Derby County averaged 3.2. Portsmouth scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 1.4, whereas Derby County scored 1.4 and conceded 1.8. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, indicating a tendency for high-scoring games. In the first half, both teams have over 1.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches, and similarly in the second half. Portsmouth most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (40%), while Derby County scores in three intervals: 0-15, 31-45, and 76-90 minutes (25% each). Portsmouth concedes most often between the 46th and 60th minutes (38%), while Derby County concedes between the 16th-30th and 31st-45th minutes (50% each). These data confirm that both teams can create and convert chances, as well as concede at various match stages. Against this background, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.21 seems logical, given the frequency and average scoring rates of both teams.

Corner Totals Analysis

Portsmouth averaged 8.2 corners per game in their last five matches, while Derby County averaged 3. Portsmouth has over 9.5 corners in 3 out of 5 matches, while Derby County has 1 out of 5. The corner line offers a total of 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 1.72, under 9.5 at 2.00. On corner outcomes, Portsmouth is favored with odds of 1.48. Considering the difference in averages and frequency, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 9.5 corners and Portsmouth's advantage in this aspect. Overall, the match promises to be eventful in terms of both goal-scoring opportunities and set pieces.