Prediction for match PSV Eindhoven — AZ Alkmaar

Odds and Probability Percentages for Match Outcome

In the Eredivisie on March 7, PSV Eindhoven will face AZ Alkmaar. According to the 1X2 odds, PSV is the clear favorite: their win is priced at 1.34, a draw at 5.73, and a victory for AZ Alkmaar at 8.20. The probabilities are distributed as follows: PSV - 71.57%, draw - 16.74%, AZ Alkmaar - 11.70%. This setup reflects the bookmakers' confidence in PSV's superiority, which is also supported by the statistics from recent encounters between these teams. There is also a wide range of totals and additional markets available, but the main interest is in both teams' scoring potential, considering their attacking style and goal records in recent matches.

Team Results and Statistics

PSV has shown high intensity in their last five matches: possession - 62.2%, average yellow cards - 1.4, fouls - 12, offsides - 2.2. AZ Alkmaar shows 57.2% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, and 0.6 offsides in the same period. In PSV's last three matches: March 3, 2026 - NEC Nijmegen vs PSV - 3-2, February 28, 2026 - Heracles vs PSV - 1-3, February 21, 2026 - PSV vs Heerenveen - 3-1. AZ Alkmaar played as follows: March 4, 2026 - AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar - 2-1, March 1, 2026 - Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar - 2-0, February 26, 2026 - AZ Alkmaar vs Noah - 4-0. In the last head-to-head on November 9, 2025, AZ Alkmaar lost to PSV 1-5.

How Many Goals to Expect?

PSV shows an average total of 3.8 goals in 5 games, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.6. AZ Alkmaar has an average total of 2.8 goals, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1. Their over 2.5 goals record is 5 out of 5 for PSV and 3 out of 5 for AZ Alkmaar. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred 3 times for PSV and 2 times for AZ Alkmaar. In the second half, both teams had over 1.5 goals 3 times out of 5. PSV most frequently scores between 76-90 minutes (30%), while AZ Alkmaar scores between 46-60 minutes (33%). PSV concedes most between 16-30 minutes (33%), and AZ Alkmaar in the final stages: 61-75 and 76-90 (50% each). This profile indicates a high likelihood of a high-scoring match. A bet on over 3.5 goals is at 1.87 and seems justified: both teams regularly produce high-scoring outcomes, and PSV consistently scores and concedes. Support for halves and over 2.5 goals for both teams confirms the prediction for a high-scoring game.

Analysis of Corner Totals

PSV averages 7.8 corners per match, AZ Alkmaar - 4.4. In the last 5 games, PSV's total over 9.5 was recorded 4 times, AZ Alkmaar - none. The most closely aligned total with the average sum (12.2) is the 11.5 line: over 11.5 corners - 2.60, under 11.5 - 1.40. For the outcome on corners, PSV is favored with odds of 1.23. In this matchup, a high number of corners is logical, especially from PSV, considering their attacking style and high average delivery rate. AZ Alkmaar's figures don't quite reach an over-profile on corners, but the total number of set pieces in the match could be high due to PSV's activity.